If a similar scenario of the "Desert Fox" military operation 1993 will happens in Syria, it is anticipated to last two days using around 500 cruise missiles at a cost ranging between $ 180 and $ 300 million.
The destruction of 250 military and civilian locations will caused damage and loses of around $250 million.
100 civilians are expected to be killed in the strikes, but it can be higher depending on the regime respond.
It became clear to most observers that anticipated U.S. military strikes against Assad regime will be similar to “Desert Fox" operation launched by U.S. and British forces against Iraq under Saddam Hussein rule at the end of the year 1998. It lasted for four days and aimed to destroy Saddam's weapons of mass destruction, particularly chemical and biological weapons, they aimed to weaken Iraqi military capabilities , but they did not aim to overthrowing the regime, or kill Saddam Hussein .
The direct reason for "Desert Fox" operation was accusing Iraqi regime of failing to cooperate with the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency that came to Iraq to search for weapons of mass destruction , including chemical and biological weapons.
America and Britain officials confirmed before and during the operation that they do not aim to overthrow Saddam Hussein which is similar to what they say today in regard to Syria and Bashar al-Assad, as the strike would not seek to overthrow Assad regime or change of power balance on ground they anticipated that strikes would be “disciplining".
It seems that the Americans want to destroy Assad's stores and equipments and places for making chemical weapons, to prevent using it again against civilians or falling under the jihadist groups hands, as Washington fears that they might use it against Israel.
"Desert Fox" against Iraq in 1998 lasted for about 70 hours and included 4 waves of air attacks especially at night to disrupt the Iraqi air defense network. Around 500 cruise missile were used.
About 73 Iraqis were killed during the attack while there was not any American or British casualty.
In Iraq, bombers ( B-52 ) was used , but it is not expected to be used in strikes against Assad regime, it is likely to be limited on using cruise missiles ,the smart weapons in the U.S. military arsenal .
"Desert Fox" operation destroyed 250 military and civilian sites, 30 sites for production weapons of mass destruction were destroyed, 27 centers for artillery air defense, 20 command centers, 10 barracks of the Republican Guard, and 6 airports.
But Iraqi opposition at the time confirmed that the strikes have not succeeded completely in destroying Iraq's strategic weapons, including chemical and biological arsenal, because they were always removed from place to another.
Preliminary information indicates that the Syrian regime has already changed most of its military sites to reduce as much as possible of its losses by the upcoming strikes.
Military strikes against Assad regime is expected to last between 24 to 48 hours, and that will depend entirely on the missile strikes in order to avoid the Syrian missile defenses.
The air defenses of Iraq in 1998 was able to drop 35 cruise missiles of the total 300 rockets fired on Iraq on the first night of the operation although Saddam’s media announced much higher figures.
Although it is difficult to estimate the number of missiles that would be used against Assad regime in the military strike, but relying on figures from “Desert Fox" operation against Iraq , the preliminary estimates , stating that Americans might use between 300 to 500 cruise missiles in two consecutive nights , the cost of each would be about $ 600 thousand , which is considered the least expensive. In total the initial value of the anticipated cost of the strikes would range between “$180 to $300”million, not counting the costs of moving and using tools to launch military rockets.
It is currently difficult to estimate the cost of Washington’s allies participation, because most of them have not confirmed their decision to participate, although the French participation has been almost certain.
The prospective damage to Assad regime side compared to what happened in “Desert Fox" operation could reach to a minimum of $ 250 million and expected to rise depending on the nature and cost of the targeted sites.
As for the human losses, preliminary expectations suggest not exceeding 100 people, but it depends on the reactions of the Syrian regime, as some observers expect targeting residential areas adjacent to the sites that American missiles would target.
There is rumors that the regime is placing detainees in buildings and official military sites, therefore civilian expected to be targeted by Washington.
Moreover, fears that indirect human cost of U.S. military strikes could be large among civilians after the regime has transferred most of its soldiers and its arsenal to other sites, mostly located in centers of residential areas crowded with civilians.
Economically, the restoration cost is expected to have big effects on Syrian people life, as it would used the treasury and foreign exchange remaining in the Central Bank of Syria , which could reflect negatively on the Syrian economy , especially at the level of deterioration of the exchange rate of Syrian pound.
Eqtsad is a business online newspaper affiliated to Zaman Alwasl.
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