By Ali Eid; Translation by Yusra Ahmed
(Zaman Al Wasl)- It has been five years since the eruption of the Syrian revolution, calling for dignity and democracy, challenging the rule of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. After years of ongoing bloodshed and failing to resolve the conflict, counting deaths has become difficult, but it is estimated that the Syrian crisis has killed 300,000 people and displaced millions.
With increasing calls by some parties for a federal structure for Syria - which would grant broad autonomy to regional authorities, while maintaining the country's unity as a single state – Staffan de Mistura, the UN-envoy to Syria, explains why in his opinion partition is not an option for the war-torn country: "The unity of a country is fundamental, the last thing that Syria would need and can afford, is a partition: small states, one controlled by a group, sponsored by another, would be unsustainable… I think no Syrian person, whoever he or she is, would accept that. They are very proud people of their own country."
Seeking experts’ opinion, Ghazi Dahman, the political analyst, mentioned that three Statelets, Sunni, Alawite and Kurdish, are one of many expectations for the new map of Syria. The Alawite statelet could be the largest which might extend from Aleppo to Daraa, and demographically, a balance between Sunni from one side and all other minorities with slight weighting via systematic displacement for Sunni.
The Kurdish statelet according to Dahman would extend along the Syrian-Turkish boarders, and population would be mainly Kurds with some Arabs, and it would be closed to Syrian side, and open to Kurdistan Iraq. “In regard to Sunni statelet, it would situated in Deir- Ezzor an Raqqa alongside Iraqi and Jordanian boarders”, detailed.
Thinking of partitioning Syria started after the crimes of al-Assad against Sunni people and pushed toward the idea of Alawite State as the last option if he failed in controlling the whole land of the country, added to the Iranian and Shiite militias interference in Syria and the Alawite people’s feel of being unwanted within the Sunni community after al-Assad’s crimes, all that paved the way to considering partitioning.
Despite all rhetorical rejection for separation by Alawite, the majority of them consider establishing a statelet for them is a need with the accumulating fear of future and possible liability as thousands of them are involved in killing Syrians.
An Alawite Journalist supportive to Syrian regime talked on condition of anonymity said that Alawite people requested reassurance but when they did not have it, they started thinking and waiting for dividing.
The Journalist explained that Alawite are interested in securing their safety and are not concerned about who share the statelet with them, which differentiate them from Kurds and other nationalities who aim to independency and having their own country.
Demographically, according to Syrian census in 2010, Alawite comprise 13% of Syrian people, while American studies estimated them to form about 10% of the population. Others experts estimate the proportion of Alawite less than 7% according to growth average of Alawite people within their areas, as they have the least growth rate, therefore, Alawite population of 325 thousand according to 1943's census, would not exceed 1.3 million in 2010 considering a growth rate of 2%. There are more 400 thousand Alawite moved to Damascus, Homs and Hama in the latest 50 years, meaning that total population of Alawite in Latakia and Tartus, their main stronghold, would not exceed 900 thousand out of 2.1 million,the total population of the two cities according to 2010 census, taking in account that Sunni form 70% of Latakai’s population.
With the recent movement and redistribution of many families, that make the rate of Alawite in the coastal region would in best conditions, not exceed half of the population, and the rate would decrease with expanding to more areas in the country, especially if they aim to a country extends from Aleppo to Daraa to secure connection with Jordan and Turkey, otherwise they might consider the coastal areas only.
Dahman expects that Alawite statelet would be able to survive despite the high cost, as many outside parties would support it. On the other hand he considers the Sunni component could mess-up the map of the Alawite Statelet although it is weak and unable to form a statelet especially if the Turkish boarders were completely closed.
Mustafa al-Sayed,a journalist and editor specialist in Economy expects that in the next three decades the statelets would witness economical conflicts might reach to violent fighting, considering the high cost of re-building the destructed areas, meaning that each statelet would follow an economical policy according to their supporters, which means that the regime would try to escape from the cost of re-building by capturing rich areas and attractive for investment.
However, according to al-Sayed , the divided Syria would stay in a condition of eruption and chaos till the racial and sectarian groups realise that killing is destructive to their statelets.
Journalist Mohammed Amin agrees on the idea and sees that partitioning the country would not solve the problem, as it would turn the county into small cantons and would push the country toward the racial conflict, as there is no particular area in Syria ethnically and sectarian pure.
Experts and observers agree that dividing Syria would not end the conflict, but it would a beginning for new sort of struggle with interference of external powers, while the internal main player would have the main rule and effect, which is the Sunni component. Moreover, the Sunni statelet would be the entrance to ending the Islamic State.
Fighting in Syria has slowed considerably since a fragile "cessation of hostilities agreement" brokered by the US and Russia came into force almost two weeks ago. But there have been violations of the truce.
With the beginning of the second round of negotiation this Monday,March 14, in regard to find a solution for the 5-year-conflict in Syria, the future of federal structure or partitioning the country as part of the solution could hopefully be clarified.
(Zaman Al Wasl)- It has been five years since the eruption of the Syrian revolution, calling for dignity and democracy, challenging the rule of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. After years of ongoing bloodshed and failing to resolve the conflict, counting deaths has become difficult, but it is estimated that the Syrian crisis has killed 300,000 people and displaced millions.
With increasing calls by some parties for a federal structure for Syria - which would grant broad autonomy to regional authorities, while maintaining the country's unity as a single state – Staffan de Mistura, the UN-envoy to Syria, explains why in his opinion partition is not an option for the war-torn country: "The unity of a country is fundamental, the last thing that Syria would need and can afford, is a partition: small states, one controlled by a group, sponsored by another, would be unsustainable… I think no Syrian person, whoever he or she is, would accept that. They are very proud people of their own country."
Seeking experts’ opinion, Ghazi Dahman, the political analyst, mentioned that three Statelets, Sunni, Alawite and Kurdish, are one of many expectations for the new map of Syria. The Alawite statelet could be the largest which might extend from Aleppo to Daraa, and demographically, a balance between Sunni from one side and all other minorities with slight weighting via systematic displacement for Sunni.
The Kurdish statelet according to Dahman would extend along the Syrian-Turkish boarders, and population would be mainly Kurds with some Arabs, and it would be closed to Syrian side, and open to Kurdistan Iraq. “In regard to Sunni statelet, it would situated in Deir- Ezzor an Raqqa alongside Iraqi and Jordanian boarders”, detailed.
Thinking of partitioning Syria started after the crimes of al-Assad against Sunni people and pushed toward the idea of Alawite State as the last option if he failed in controlling the whole land of the country, added to the Iranian and Shiite militias interference in Syria and the Alawite people’s feel of being unwanted within the Sunni community after al-Assad’s crimes, all that paved the way to considering partitioning.
Despite all rhetorical rejection for separation by Alawite, the majority of them consider establishing a statelet for them is a need with the accumulating fear of future and possible liability as thousands of them are involved in killing Syrians.
An Alawite Journalist supportive to Syrian regime talked on condition of anonymity said that Alawite people requested reassurance but when they did not have it, they started thinking and waiting for dividing.
The Journalist explained that Alawite are interested in securing their safety and are not concerned about who share the statelet with them, which differentiate them from Kurds and other nationalities who aim to independency and having their own country.
Demographically, according to Syrian census in 2010, Alawite comprise 13% of Syrian people, while American studies estimated them to form about 10% of the population. Others experts estimate the proportion of Alawite less than 7% according to growth average of Alawite people within their areas, as they have the least growth rate, therefore, Alawite population of 325 thousand according to 1943's census, would not exceed 1.3 million in 2010 considering a growth rate of 2%. There are more 400 thousand Alawite moved to Damascus, Homs and Hama in the latest 50 years, meaning that total population of Alawite in Latakia and Tartus, their main stronghold, would not exceed 900 thousand out of 2.1 million,the total population of the two cities according to 2010 census, taking in account that Sunni form 70% of Latakai’s population.
With the recent movement and redistribution of many families, that make the rate of Alawite in the coastal region would in best conditions, not exceed half of the population, and the rate would decrease with expanding to more areas in the country, especially if they aim to a country extends from Aleppo to Daraa to secure connection with Jordan and Turkey, otherwise they might consider the coastal areas only.
Dahman expects that Alawite statelet would be able to survive despite the high cost, as many outside parties would support it. On the other hand he considers the Sunni component could mess-up the map of the Alawite Statelet although it is weak and unable to form a statelet especially if the Turkish boarders were completely closed.
Mustafa al-Sayed,a journalist and editor specialist in Economy expects that in the next three decades the statelets would witness economical conflicts might reach to violent fighting, considering the high cost of re-building the destructed areas, meaning that each statelet would follow an economical policy according to their supporters, which means that the regime would try to escape from the cost of re-building by capturing rich areas and attractive for investment.
However, according to al-Sayed , the divided Syria would stay in a condition of eruption and chaos till the racial and sectarian groups realise that killing is destructive to their statelets.
Journalist Mohammed Amin agrees on the idea and sees that partitioning the country would not solve the problem, as it would turn the county into small cantons and would push the country toward the racial conflict, as there is no particular area in Syria ethnically and sectarian pure.
Experts and observers agree that dividing Syria would not end the conflict, but it would a beginning for new sort of struggle with interference of external powers, while the internal main player would have the main rule and effect, which is the Sunni component. Moreover, the Sunni statelet would be the entrance to ending the Islamic State.
Fighting in Syria has slowed considerably since a fragile "cessation of hostilities agreement" brokered by the US and Russia came into force almost two weeks ago. But there have been violations of the truce.
With the beginning of the second round of negotiation this Monday,March 14, in regard to find a solution for the 5-year-conflict in Syria, the future of federal structure or partitioning the country as part of the solution could hopefully be clarified.
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