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Syria experts, activists say 'Russia’s drawdown hides a bargain'

Translation by Yusra Ahmed

(Zaman Al Wasl)- Russia has on Monday, the first day of the second round of Geneva3 talks to resolve the Syrian crisis, suddenly announced decision of withdrawing the majority of its forces from Syria the very next day, according to President Vladimir Putin and Minister of defence Sergey Shoygu claiming that mission was accomplished.

Social media websites have become busy in contradicting feelings and explanations, especially the decision was coincided with the 5th Anniversary of the Syrian revolution.

Regime’s loyalists were lost about deciding the correct emotion, some were scared from the outcomes of Russian withdrawal, expecting that it could be the beginning of the end of the regime, while others agreed and echoed the regime’s official story about coordination between the regime and Russia about the Russian decision.

ZamanAl Wasl tried to explore opinions many Syrian figures of different political, educational and legal backgrounds.

Journalist Mohammed Amin said that Russian decision to withdraw forces in that timing was no doubt an extraordinary act, especially it coincided with talks between the regime and the Syrian opposition in Geneva.

He added: “let’s not be so optimistic, the Russian decision was part of an agreement among the major countries to pave the way to dislodge basher al-Assad and its regime, who has become a burden on all its supporters, and there is no way to support him any longer because that has badly affected the Russian economy which is already struggling.”

Amin expressed that even if Russia withdrew its forces from Syria, that soes not mean it would leave Hamim military base or Russian existence in Syria.

Judge Abdul-Hai Taweel considered Putin’s decision was not improvised as it appeared, but it reflected the Russian way of dealing with the region’s crisis especially the Syrian crisis, as Russian showed over months overt lies and unlimited revels in their claims to fight terrorism.

Journalist Mohammed al-Hamadi said that although the decision looked to be taken on rush, but it reflects events in the backstage of Kremlin and the Russian worries in facing the West and the Islamic alliance that has been formed after struggling in sorting out the Syrian crisis and the increase the number of forces supported by Russia.

“I expect that Russia decided to stop losses and limit them at the economical level after the drop in oil prices, and to avoid big military loss if the rebels were armed with anit-warplanes weapons like what happened in Afghanistan in the eighties of last century” he added.

Al-Hamadi summarise his opinion saying that Russia preferred to use the political card instead of getting committed in a huge battle could end up in weakening and destroying it.

Judge Mustafa al-Qassem pointed out that Russian has done similar act of incredibility as they did the same when they wanted to pressurise al-Assad to find a solution for the chemical weapon.

“the aim this time is to force al-Assad to compromise in order t o keep the regime in light of recent negotiations”, he added and warned that Russain withdrwal was only for the forces which had lately entered Syrian and does not affect the Russian existence and military bases in the country, it is only the beginning of the withdrawal, but no oneknows how long it would take, besides coming back to Syria will not take more than few hours.
Journalist Moaed Abazid has not found Russian decision surprising in presence of continuing Russian-American communications, as Russian are concerned about their advantages and their relation to the United States to lift the economical embargo and the oil prices, as Syria is not more than a pressure card Russia used it.
Abazid expected that Saudi Arabia had had a big role in the decision, as it obtains the biggest cash reserves in the world after China and Japan at $800 billion and it able to reduce the price of oil for years, which would affect the Gas price, that comprise the main supporter to the Russian economy besides the fall in Ruble rate by 70% against U.S. Dollar.

Abazid detailed that battle on Syrian land would not be in favor of Russian economy as Iran cannot support because of its bad economic status, and the Syrian regime is in need for support, therefore, Russian decided to get their share and leave.

Tariq Kurdi, the former head of the legal office in the National coalition was not able to drawa final conclusion of the Russian decision, as time would show more details, but he thinks that Russia had already achieved pre-planned goals in Syria like founding a military base in al-Hamim, giving many strategic hits to Turkey, besides limiting the Iranian power in Syria.

Kurdi pointed out the timing of decision to coincide with the fifth anniversary of the Syrian revolution migh carry a hidden message to the Syrian people.

The Russian air strikes in Syria started in the last day of September, 2015, claiming to target the Islamic State stronghold in A-Raqqa and Al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate Al-Nusra Front, but concerns were built up when the strikes attacked rebel groups opposed to Syrian regime, in an attempt to support their long-term ally Bashar al-Assad and help him to stay.

Since the beginning, the US-led coalition urged Russia to stop attacking Syrian opposition forces, warning that it risked escalating the five-year war that has killed up to 270,000 people.

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