Writing by Abdullah Al Ghadawi; Translation by Rana Abdul
(Zaman Al Wasl)- The Syrian opposition scene was busied following the Russian minister of defense’s Sergey Shoygu’s visit with targeting al-Assad’s status, which is decreasing anyway, by describing him as lacking in sovereignty, dignity, a student sitting before his master, but the descriptions forgot what is bigger than these adjectives.
Viewers thus lost the opportunity to conclude the contents of this visit and its reflections on the daily life of the people who are waiting every morning the end of the destructive war.
So was the aim of Sergey Shoygu’s visit an act of contempt against al-Assad only, and showing him up as being obedient to Russian orders?
What is the nature of the relationship between the visit and events on the ground, the opposition’s advancement in Aleppo’s northern countryside, and the retreat in Iranian influence? And what is the regional atmosphere surrounding this visit, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and are we at the cusp of a new stage in the Syrian crisis in the shadow of Russian warnings that Syria will end if this war does not end?
It is necessary firstly that Russia is the first country that is governing levels of the Syrian crisis, amidst implicit American approval on its role, and even the Syrian opposition whether the negotiation committee or the national coalition have no problem with Russia playing a role that in the end leads to the stop of the war, if the solution leans towards the Russian hand more than any other hand.
In the formal sense the visit means that in the next Syrian phase a military regime will govern the country without doubt, and the visit confirmed this, as the first of its kind for a Russian ministry of defense and his meeting with al-Assad, and there is no one more suitable to engineer for this phase than the Russian minister of defense.
The suggestion that the joint military council lead the transitional phase was circulated in 2013, and the country suggested to host this council was Algeria, but the regional conflict in Syria tool the crisis along a different pathway.
-Iran and the regional climate-
Today it appears the Russians, through regional climate supporting any suggestions ending the crisis without the hegemony of al-Assad might go through with forming this council from regime officers and the nontraditional opposition, and maybe we will hear about new persons in this framework from all parties, they will be persons who hold international pass cards.
And this solution comes in tandem with the Turkish Russian flirtation recently, and as it is with respect to Saudi Arabia that does not oppose the establishment of this joint council.
This scenario, had effects on the ground, as in the last month Iranian sources leaked that Russian airplanes targeted militias following the Iranian revolutionary guard in the battle Khan Tuman. Whereas last week the Russian airplanes did not cover Khalset, in Aleppo’s southern countryside leading to aggravation of Hezbollah and Iran’s losses.
The Russian fighter jets in Idlib were sufficient and the gathering of all the Islamic forces according to the airplane lines that Russia is drawing and which it wants in the following stage. For the cartography on the ground to be harmonious with the joint military council’s tasks, and push the Islamic forces to the fullest extent from influence, which is exaggerated from the Russian point of view. And through what is happening in Aleppo’s countryside and the tension in the relationship between Hezbollah and al-Assad’s forces should not be passed over, as the Iranian and Hezbollah agenda is not exactly al-Assad’s agenda, and we do not rule out the possibility of the breach between Iran and Russia widening, especially as Sergey Shoygu’s visit came only a week after a joint meeting between the Iranian, Syrian and Russia military leaders in Tehran, but at that time, Shoygu’s visit to Syria means the meeting in Tehran all is not well.
-The Syrian Opposition-
It is no secret or curse to say the Syrian opposition in all its parties has left the equation of the Syrian conflict, and not just the opposition but also the regime, and both sides are now receptive to any international solution that will stop the war, and it cannot be ruled out that the last meeting between the coordination committee and the coalition which happened in Brussels comes within this framework, especially as both sides agreed to form a workshop to meet next month.
In any case it is not the side whose approval should be waited for, for if Russia decides to move ahead with the joint military council the political path, through European or American doors, will follow a similar path, and will not be outside the Russian vision.
-Israeli approval-
For the first time in the history of the Middle East the Israeli-Russian coordination takes precedence over the Israeli-American coordination, as Russia today is Israel’s neighbor in Syria and not America. On September 19 2015, Benjamin Netanyahu visited Russia and met with president Vladimir Putin, in less than three weeks following this meeting.
Russia surprised the world with a direct military intervention in Syria, to shake up the international and regional cards, the issue was very clear, that this intervention represents a service to Israeli interests, in light of the existence of the Russian S-400 Triuf missile system. And in the first week of this month, June 2016, Netanyahu renewed his visit to Russia , for the result to come two weeks later with the Russian minister of defense’s visit to Syria, as Israel is “horse stall” in the Syrian crisis, in every real and serious movement you find its echoes in Syria.
And based on what Israeli analysts are repeating, the Syrian crisis is close to being solved one way or another, and the war must be stopped, so that the state does not enter into a stage of complete security breakdown, an issue of concern for Israel especially along the border with al-Goulan that both al-Assad and Putin joined to Israel forever.
It is not possible to ignore the Israeli perspective concerning Syria as it is a good observation tower.
In any case, the wait will not be as long this to see the influence of this articulate visit for the Russian minister of defense to Syria, and maybe Russia will surprisingly form this council before the end of the Obama administration to present to him a ready-made settlement that requires only Obama’s thumb print, whereas countries in the region are ready for any initiative of this kind, as the Syrian crisis has eaten the green and the desiccated.
(Zaman Al Wasl)- The Syrian opposition scene was busied following the Russian minister of defense’s Sergey Shoygu’s visit with targeting al-Assad’s status, which is decreasing anyway, by describing him as lacking in sovereignty, dignity, a student sitting before his master, but the descriptions forgot what is bigger than these adjectives.
Viewers thus lost the opportunity to conclude the contents of this visit and its reflections on the daily life of the people who are waiting every morning the end of the destructive war.
So was the aim of Sergey Shoygu’s visit an act of contempt against al-Assad only, and showing him up as being obedient to Russian orders?
What is the nature of the relationship between the visit and events on the ground, the opposition’s advancement in Aleppo’s northern countryside, and the retreat in Iranian influence? And what is the regional atmosphere surrounding this visit, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and are we at the cusp of a new stage in the Syrian crisis in the shadow of Russian warnings that Syria will end if this war does not end?
It is necessary firstly that Russia is the first country that is governing levels of the Syrian crisis, amidst implicit American approval on its role, and even the Syrian opposition whether the negotiation committee or the national coalition have no problem with Russia playing a role that in the end leads to the stop of the war, if the solution leans towards the Russian hand more than any other hand.
In the formal sense the visit means that in the next Syrian phase a military regime will govern the country without doubt, and the visit confirmed this, as the first of its kind for a Russian ministry of defense and his meeting with al-Assad, and there is no one more suitable to engineer for this phase than the Russian minister of defense.
The suggestion that the joint military council lead the transitional phase was circulated in 2013, and the country suggested to host this council was Algeria, but the regional conflict in Syria tool the crisis along a different pathway.
-Iran and the regional climate-
Today it appears the Russians, through regional climate supporting any suggestions ending the crisis without the hegemony of al-Assad might go through with forming this council from regime officers and the nontraditional opposition, and maybe we will hear about new persons in this framework from all parties, they will be persons who hold international pass cards.
And this solution comes in tandem with the Turkish Russian flirtation recently, and as it is with respect to Saudi Arabia that does not oppose the establishment of this joint council.
This scenario, had effects on the ground, as in the last month Iranian sources leaked that Russian airplanes targeted militias following the Iranian revolutionary guard in the battle Khan Tuman. Whereas last week the Russian airplanes did not cover Khalset, in Aleppo’s southern countryside leading to aggravation of Hezbollah and Iran’s losses.
The Russian fighter jets in Idlib were sufficient and the gathering of all the Islamic forces according to the airplane lines that Russia is drawing and which it wants in the following stage. For the cartography on the ground to be harmonious with the joint military council’s tasks, and push the Islamic forces to the fullest extent from influence, which is exaggerated from the Russian point of view. And through what is happening in Aleppo’s countryside and the tension in the relationship between Hezbollah and al-Assad’s forces should not be passed over, as the Iranian and Hezbollah agenda is not exactly al-Assad’s agenda, and we do not rule out the possibility of the breach between Iran and Russia widening, especially as Sergey Shoygu’s visit came only a week after a joint meeting between the Iranian, Syrian and Russia military leaders in Tehran, but at that time, Shoygu’s visit to Syria means the meeting in Tehran all is not well.
-The Syrian Opposition-
It is no secret or curse to say the Syrian opposition in all its parties has left the equation of the Syrian conflict, and not just the opposition but also the regime, and both sides are now receptive to any international solution that will stop the war, and it cannot be ruled out that the last meeting between the coordination committee and the coalition which happened in Brussels comes within this framework, especially as both sides agreed to form a workshop to meet next month.
In any case it is not the side whose approval should be waited for, for if Russia decides to move ahead with the joint military council the political path, through European or American doors, will follow a similar path, and will not be outside the Russian vision.
-Israeli approval-
For the first time in the history of the Middle East the Israeli-Russian coordination takes precedence over the Israeli-American coordination, as Russia today is Israel’s neighbor in Syria and not America. On September 19 2015, Benjamin Netanyahu visited Russia and met with president Vladimir Putin, in less than three weeks following this meeting.
Russia surprised the world with a direct military intervention in Syria, to shake up the international and regional cards, the issue was very clear, that this intervention represents a service to Israeli interests, in light of the existence of the Russian S-400 Triuf missile system. And in the first week of this month, June 2016, Netanyahu renewed his visit to Russia , for the result to come two weeks later with the Russian minister of defense’s visit to Syria, as Israel is “horse stall” in the Syrian crisis, in every real and serious movement you find its echoes in Syria.
And based on what Israeli analysts are repeating, the Syrian crisis is close to being solved one way or another, and the war must be stopped, so that the state does not enter into a stage of complete security breakdown, an issue of concern for Israel especially along the border with al-Goulan that both al-Assad and Putin joined to Israel forever.
It is not possible to ignore the Israeli perspective concerning Syria as it is a good observation tower.
In any case, the wait will not be as long this to see the influence of this articulate visit for the Russian minister of defense to Syria, and maybe Russia will surprisingly form this council before the end of the Obama administration to present to him a ready-made settlement that requires only Obama’s thumb print, whereas countries in the region are ready for any initiative of this kind, as the Syrian crisis has eaten the green and the desiccated.
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