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Assad, Kurds: change in engagement rules

By Abdullah Ghadawi

(Zaman Al Wasl)- On the day the regime airplanes bombed three locations for the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG) in al-Hasakah on Thursday of last week, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was promising the supporters of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) with punishment. Five days prior to the bombing, in an indication to the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing the YPG, Mohammad Javad Zarif the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu announced their hostility towards the Kurdish experience in Syria.

At the heart of this political move, after the increased closeness of Russia, Turkey and Iran, especially after Zarif’s visit to Ankara and opening up the Iranian military base Hamadan before the Russian fighter jets, al-Assad sought to find a role he can play in the Kurdish file, and he chose to strike the Kurds to be at the center of the Iranian Turkish intersection in the Kurdish issue especially as the Iranian and Turkish ministers of foreign affairs agreed unanimously that Turkey’s security is Iran’s security and vice versa.

Regarding Russia, it is not clear until now that it is not at the heart of the Iranian Turkish intersection against the Kurds as the representative of the Democratic Union Party Ali Abed al-Salam still represents the party in his office in Moscow. Except it considers what happened an attempt to weaken the American role in supporting Kurds and in this case it will be very happy without doubt.

In tandem with this, it is clear that centuries of American sensors are still functioning well in Syria as in a meeting for the American envoy for Syria Michael Ratney with the political commission for the coalition on the 10th of August, Ratney asked the coalition to speak to the Democratic Union Party to create a sturdy network, from the American point of view, able to influence in confronting the regime’s hegemony over the regime’s decision.

When the Syrian regime fighters launched strikes against the Union Party’s locations, Washington understood that it is the country first and foremost meant in those strikes since it is a strike against the American’s trusty ally against the Islamic State. The day after the attack, Jeff Davis, the Pentagon spokesperson hastened to send out clear messages that his country will protect the areas controlled by the Protection Units, and al-Assad must understand that these forces were targeted are fighting the Islamic State, and the United States has forces in these areas and al-Assad must be careful….. and another American official went further to say that al-Assad will lose his planes if he repeats it once more.

Here, the regional and international image about approaching the Kurds became complete, the Turkish-Iranian accord situates as al-Assad as a small employee with his airplanes, and Russian silence about his future movements are the maps of the struggle on the ground and the development of the relations with the Americans, and the American stance fears for an ally from the strikes of others at the height of its battles with the Islamic State.

In the past five long years of the Syrian image, the Democratic Union Party’s military and political ideology was based on not confronting the regime for free, and as long as the regime does not cross certain lines in an announced or unannounced truce, then it is better to remain in this situation suitable for both parties… a situation of not-war or not-peace.

This ideology was entrenched further when the number of enemies of the Democratic Union Party’s increased, after Turkey, al-Nusra Front, and Islamic State, even with some of the factions of the Free Syrian Army, so the Party held onto this strategy on the basis of the German military expert Clausewitz, “who fights on all fronts loses on all fronts.” But al-Assad got close to modifying the truce and it is not clear if he will go ahead with breaking entirely with this truce or not.

Al-Assad in his strike against the Democratic Union Party synchronized his actions with the Turkish speech in the part tying the Democratic Union Party with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, and in the best case scenario it is an offering for any settlement at the Syrian level on the basis his role in this settlement in the event it is prepared for with internal and regional agreements, and it is most likely, very difficult, his role will be to break the back bone of the Kurds to satisfy Turkey and anger the United States, and at the same time with Russian leanings that have not been successful in taking the Kurdish card from America.

If there is a role for al-Assad in this settlement, then the Kurdish confrontation with the regime is coming without a doubt. The regime’s movement against the Kurds are timed messages the full features of which will be revealed in the coming period.

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