Irish PM's tough talk reveals candid realities of Brexit

(Sky News)- Not just unlikely, nor merely undesirable, but "impossible" says Britain's closest ally about the desire to negotiate a full exit deal from the EU within the two-year time frame.

It was an unexpectedly strong intervention from Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny, speaking to me on Sky News on the margins of the British Irish Council near Cardiff.

But it goes to the heart of the current shadow boxing over Article 50 between the UK Government and officials of the EU and its member states.

"It will be impossible to do all the negotiations in the contemplated two-year period, that is why there is a growing feeling in Europe that there should be a transition period," the Taoiseach told me.

Sky News revealed on Thursday that a transition period is currently central to the European Union's strategy for Brexit talks.

It is the second of three tiers, including firstly the so-called "divorce deal", and lastly a final status trade deal.

EU officials believe the first two pillars need to be finished before the final deal, refusing UK officials' position that the final deal can be negotiated in parallel with the Article 50 process.

Mr Kenny would not be drawn on the timescale for a transition deal, but privately Irish ministers have suggested three to five years to sort out the libraries of EU laws and trade arrangements into a new UK-EU deal.

Asked about a transition deal, Mr Kenny replied: "I think there's Inevitability abut this to be honest. In 50 years nobody has left the EU, this is the first time.

"It's more detailed and [includes more] unforeseen issues than people might have imagined.

"So I would expect to see the 'divorce', as it's called, take place and there be a transition period and a new relationship founded between the UK and the EU - and that transition might take longer than people expect."

Some EU capitals do not rule out a transition of up to a decade.

Ireland's situation is recognised as unique, with the importance to the Republic of its land border and Common Travel Area shared with the UK.

The Irish PM and Theresa May have already agreed that there should be no return to a "hard border".

It seems difficult to reconcile how this will work with a UK immediately leaving the EU customs union.

Mr Kenny said he did not want the UK to leave: "The customs union is a matter for the British Government ... I don't want to see a situation where the Brexit discussions become even more complicated by Britain leaving the customs union and having imposition of tariffs at ports on goods, which will mean inconvenience, delays and time wasting, extra costs and job losses."

Mr Kenny said the EU 27 were negotiating as one behind "no notification [of Article 50], no negotiation", and that full access to the single market must mean the operation of the "four freedoms", including movement.

"That's a very red line issue," said the Taoiseach.

Mr Kenny said there would be a meeting of the EU 27 on the sidelines of next month's EU summit to "focus on the structure and strategy of any negotiations" that might follow in the new year.

Ireland will do everything to protect trade, the peace process and the common travel area, he said.

He also confirmed there has been a "spike" in Britons applying for Irish citizenship.

"It doesn't surprise me that people reflecting on the as yet unknown outcome from Brexit will say, 'I'm entitled to apply for an Irish passport and that's what I'm going to do'."

The uncertainty remains. But some of the contours of the Brexit process are now being revealed thanks to some candid realities from Britain's closest neighbours.