(Zaman Al Wasl)- The military expert Ismail Eyub considered that five core reasons pushed Russia, in cooperation with Turkey, to impose the ceasefire in Syria although Russian President Vladimir Putin described the ceasefire as “fragile.”
In a statement to zaman al-Wasl, Eyub mentioned that the Russian military lost eleven fighter helicopters and three warplanes other than the human losses incurred in their confrontation with Syrian fighters. They incurred these losses although there is no enemy in Syria that has an organized army, heavy weapons, aircraft weapons or even anti-aircraft weapons. Eyub insisted that these variables and the Russian losses highlighted the weakness of the Russian army.
According to Eyub, the expense of the Russian military presence in Syria especially with the Russian air force executing continuous aerial campaigns, with no definitive end, other than all the other kinds of weapons and ammunition the Russian army is using were another reason for Russia to impose a comprehensive ceasefire.
Eyub argued that at the military and economic levels Russia is convinced that, “The regime will not be able to continue in life without the Russian IV drip through the direct Russian military presence and engagement with the regime army.
The regime army has become a toy in the hands of the Shiite militias and Russian military commanders. Russia is convinced that the regime cannot survive in the event Russian military and aerial support is withdrawn according to military studies published by the Russian Ministry of Defense which confirm that the regime forces and the Shiite militias have benefited greatly from the Russian aerial efforts for over 16 months.”
The Russian sponsorship for the truce pertain to Russia’s consideration to maintain its geo-political, strategic, and economic interests in the area in light of the continuous western and US threats to impose more economic sanctions on Russia due to its confrontational policies in Syria and Ukraine.
Eyub added that Russian fear of the unknown political path that American president elect Donald Trump will pursue in the Middle East especially regarding the conflict between the Russia and the US, and all other western states, was an important factor in the Russian political calculations. Russia fears that the west will drown it in Syria, so it seeks to avoid a repetition of its experiences in Afghanistan.
As a result, the Russian command preferred given the absence of any role for the west and America, specifically, to impose a new reality in Syria due to its conviction that the Bashar al-Assad regime was close to its end if not for the intervention of the Shiite militias headed by Iran.
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