(Financial Times)- When the Syrian government and rebels meet in Kazakhstan next week, the chances of the warring parties agreeing on a political solution to end their near six-year conflict will be slim. But for Moscow, the main sponsor of the talks, one crucial thing has already been accomplished: sending out the message that Russia is back as a key player in the Middle East.
With a 15-month bombing campaign in Syria and shrewd political manoeuvring, Moscow rescued President Bashar al-Assad from defeat, tilted the military balance in his favour and paved the way for a nationwide ceasefire. Russian officials are now relishing the political triumph — not least the fact that US is invited to the Astana talks as Moscow’s guest, a dynamic that starkly highlights how US influence has waned as Russia’s has grown. But Moscow’s ambitions run much deeper.
“The Obama administration’s policy in the Middle East has failed. We stepped in,” said a Russian former ambassador.
Citing Russia’s crucial role in helping Mr Assad recapture Aleppo, Syria’s second city, last month, Nikolai Kozhanov, a Middle East expert at the European University at St Petersburg, said Moscow’s “appetite is growing according to their achievements on the ground”.
“Syria is now considered as a kind of means [to further regional influence] rather than a goal in itself,” he added.
One of the main drivers behind Moscow’s push into the Middle East is the fallout from the 2011 Arab Spring that triggered upheaval across the region. The episode convinced President Vladimir Putin that Russia’s retreat from the dominant regional position his country inherited from the former Soviet Union was a big mistake, Russian foreign policy experts say.
This regional chaos added to Mr Putin’s concerns that Islamist terrorism could destabilise Russia, as well as the former Soviet republics in central Asia. In addition, there is an economic incentive — the Middle East has traditionally been a big market for Russian weapons sales, an important export, particularly to Egypt, Syria and Iran. Mr Putin also eyes investment opportunities for Russian companies in the oil and gas-rich region.
Moscow has already used its intervention in the Syrian conflict to position itself as an important partner for regional powers regardless of their opposing interests — from Saudi Arabia to Iran and Iraq to Israel.
It is also trying to expand its role as a power broker in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This week, it hosted talks aimed at ending the decade-old internal divisions between Palestinian factions Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas’s movement, and Hamas, the Gaza-based militant group.
“The fact that the Russians invited us […] indicates that Russia is ready to get more involved in Middle East issues,” said Mustafa Barghouti, a Palestinian MP and head of the Palestinian National Initiative, a political party.
Russia has also set its sights on Libya, which has been blighted by conflict since the 2011 uprising against Muammer Gaddafi, the late dictator.
Moscow has deepened ties with Khalifa Haftar, a renegade general who controls most of the eastern half of the country, including crucial oil installations. Mr Haftar, who is refusing to bow to the authority of the UN-backed government in Tripoli, visited Russia twice last year seeking help in his campaign against Islamist groups.
Last week, he was invited aboard Russia’s aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, in the Mediterranean, from where he held a videoconference with Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister.
The visit to the ship, the most overt show of Russian support to the general so far, comes amid warnings of a potential renewal of fighting between his self-styled Libyan National Army and militias loyal to the Tripoli government.
Russia has said that it remains committed to the UN arms embargo on Libya, but the strengthening relationship is a boost to the general at a time when his enemies are seen to be flailing.
“The Russians, I think, want to get back to the strong relationship they had with Gaddafi when Russia had docking rights in the port of Benghazi,” said Mattia Toaldo, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Also they may be hoping to get back $4bn of outstanding debt from the Gaddafi years.”
A former Russian diplomat said Moscow’s moves in Libya reflected what it sees as a bitter lesson from Iraq — that it will lose out if it stays away from domestic political battles in countries it has an interest in.
“Russian diplomacy is reaching a new level here. They are now no longer just reactive but trying to become architects of the situation,” Mr Kozhanov said. “Their idea may be creating a regime like in Algeria or Egypt, which keeps the domestic political situation under strong control and can build personal ties with Putin.”
In Syria, Moscow has achieved many its goals for now. It is expanding its naval base in Tartus as well as a new air base near Latakia, giving it a large, permanent military foothold to project power.
Many Syrians say their country is firmly under Russian influence.
“Bashar’s best-case scenario is to control Damascus,” said Firas Tlass, a former regime insider and powerful Syrian business tycoon who fled in 2012. “But he knows he doesn’t really control the coast, Tartus and Latakia — half of that belongs to Russia.”
Liberal, non-Islamist elements of Syria’s opposition spectrum have grown more open to Russia’s role and some now see it as perhaps even useful — not only to counter Iran, the other main backer of Mr Assad, but also opposition hardliners supported by Turkey.
And yet for all its resurgent influence, Russian officials believe Moscow ultimately needs the US to also play a prominent role in the region. “What is needed to work properly in the region is the Americans and us working together,” the former ambassador said.
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