(The Wall Street Journal)- Russia and Turkey, which for years have backed opposing sides in Syria’s civil war, say they will work to map the outlines of a peace agreement during negotiations this week, the first major test of whether the powers’ newfound cooperation can achieve a breakthrough to end the conflict.
The Trump administration has said it won’t be sending a delegation to the talks—which begin Monday in the Kazakh capital, Astana—despite being invited to attend alongside Syrian rebels and envoys from Iran, and will be represented instead by the U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the talks are aimed at building on a recent cease-fire deal and would include Syrian rebel commanders. Mikhail Bogdanov, Mr. Lavrov’s deputy, said 14 rebel groups have agreed to take part and that Moscow hopes more will join.
The fractured range of rebel groups fighting Mr. Assad—and each other—could undermine the success of any deals struck. Some of the biggest groups have said they won’t take part in the Kazakh meetings.
Since the summer, Turkish and Russian officials have been discussing the outlines of what Ankara describes as a pragmatic interim political solution in Syria while working to achieve a consensus on a longer-term future for the fractured country.
More than 400,000 people have been killed since the Syrian war started six years ago and half the country’s population of 22 million has been displaced by the fighting. The conflict also spawned a wave of refugees that poured into Europe, raising terror fears and roiling politics across the Continent.
Turkey’s deputy prime minister, Mehmet Simsek, said on Friday during an appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that “facts on the ground have changed dramatically” in Syria.
He said Turkey, like the U.S., believes that a permanent political solution to the crisis in Syria cannot include a role for Mr. Assad. But he said the fact that rebels and other opponents have failed to remove him from power is a reality that can’t be ignored.
Russia, which has backed the Syrian leader, in part to ensure its ability to maintain a naval base in the country, has expressed a willingness for Mr. Assad to eventually be eased from power, though it casts his military as the only real bulwark against extremists.
Yasser al-Youssef, a political leader of Nour al-Dine al-Zinki, a rebel group based in Aleppo province, said the group wouldn’t participate because Russia’s “efforts are not in pursuit of a real political settlement but in pursuit of maintaining the survival of the regime.”
The rebels have been seriously weakened by last month’s fall of the city of Aleppo, Syria’s former commercial capital, which was retaken by government forces backed by Russian airstrikes and assisted by Iranian, Lebanese and Iraqi Shiite militias.
Under President Barack Obama, the U.S. took an increasingly measured approach to the struggle between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the rebel forces arrayed against him, offering some support to so-called moderate groups, but focusing more on fighting extremist group Islamic State.
President Donald Trump has called for intensifying the fight against Islamic State, but hasn't spelled out plans on deploying military forces or backing combatants in Syria.
Despite the recent cease-fire deal, rebels say Moscow and the Syrian government continue to launch airstrikes on opposition-held areas. Several rebel leaders said Thursday that their main objective in Astana is establishing a real cease-fire rather than discussing political settlements.
“The most important tasks of the delegation will be to talk about the cease-fire and the humanitarian situation, because these are the priorities and things that have not yet been accomplished,” said Zakaria Malahifji, a political leader of the Fastaqim Kama Umirt rebel faction.
Another round of talks is already planned next month in Geneva and hosted by the United Nations.
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