(The Guardian)- The Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, has taken a combative tone in campaigning as conservative rivals pull out all the stops to prevent him from being re-elected.
The favourite among reformists of the six candidates running for president on 19 May, Rouhani has crossed red lines in Iranian politics with attacks on the elite Revolutionary Guards and the characterisation of one of his main challengers as someone whose only talent was execution and imprisonment.
The president had been put on the defensive during two televised debates in which conservative rivals Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Tehran mayor, and hardliner Ebrahim Raisi attacked the country’s economic performance since he made the 2015 nuclear deal with the west, which lifted some sanctions.
But Rouhani, a moderate, hit back with attacks on the hardliners as he sought to reach the estimated 40% of the 55 million Iranians who do not usually vote.
“We want the law for all institutions, we don’t want institutions exempted from tax. How come it’s good for people to pay tax, not for you?” Rouhani said in an apparent reference to Raisi, who is the custodian of the wealthiest charity in the Muslim world, which does not pay tax.
In an extraordinary reference at a rally on Monday to Raisi’s former judicial career, which includes a notorious incident in 1988 when he was one of four judges who oversaw the mass execution of dissidents, he said: “The people of Iran will announce in this election that they don’t accept those who only knew executions and prison for 38 years.”
At a rally for female supporters in Shiroudi stadium in Tehran on Tuesday he told the crowd that he strongly opposed gender segregation in the society or at universities.
“We won’t accept gender discrimination, we won’t accept gender oppression … we want social and political freedom,” he said amid occasional eruptions of chants in support of opposition leaders under house arrest, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.
The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, weighed in on Wednesday, urging everyone to preserve the security of the country, saying that “anyone who deviates from this path should certainly know that they will be given a slap in the face”.
The ayatollah also warned against “a sedition”, using the same term deployed against the opposition Green movement after the disputed 2009 election.
Sadeq Zibakalam, a professor at Tehran University, said that Rouhani’s change of tone was retaliation after Ghalibaf and Raisi mounted “unethical” attacks on him during TV debates. Rouhani was also reacting to many state-backed groups throwing their weight behind Raisi, Zibakalam said.
“The establishment’s favourite candidate is Mr Raisi,” Zibakalam told the Guardian by phone from Tehran. “Clergies, state television, Friday imam prayers, basij [voluntary] militia and the Revolutionary Guards are all supporting Raisi.”
Zibakalam said it was unlikely that Raisi, who until recently was being touted as a frontrunner to succeed the country’s supreme leader, would drop out in favour of Ghalibaf, the other conservative candidate. He rejected a theory suggesting Raisi might drop out at the last minute just in time to raise his profile for a possible succession in future, saying: “Raisi is running to become president.” Critics say a defeat would scupper his chances of a possible succession.
“Rouhani faces a tough race ahead, but in contrast to all the institutions backing Raisi, there exist those who had decided to boycott. Gradually we’re seeing them coming in support of Rouhani. A wave of such voters is gradually emerging.”
Nasser Hadian, a political expert based in Tehran, said the election mood was heating up. “A bigger participation would make it easier for Rouhani to win,” he said. “The president is mainly alluding to those who haven’t made up their mind whether to vote or not.”
Rouhani has attacked the Revolutionary Guards twice in a course of one week. He accused the elite forces on Friday of attempting to derail the nuclear agreement. On Tuesday, he attacked them again for criticising him over a mine explosion in northern Iran. All candidates will take part in a final live TV debate on Friday.
Hadian said Ghalibaf and Raisi both were likely to remain in the race but if Ghalibaf pulled out in favour of Raisi, then Rouhani would benefit because not all Ghalibaf supporters backed a traditional hardliner. “I think if any of those two would step aside, that would be Raisi. He’ll save his face and his vote could go towards Ghalibaf.”
Ghalibaf and Raisi were busy campaigning this week. In Tehran, Ghalibaf fans, holding flags emblazoned with “96%”, shouted at a rally: “Handsome blond man, you are our president”. Ghalibaf has been promoting the idea that he stands for the 96%, saying he opposes the top 4% wealthiest in the society. In Kerman, south of Iran, Raisi was also greeted by a packed stadium shouting “Heidar, heidar” – the Arabic for lion.
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