The fall of Raqqa: the deadliest phase

(The Guardian)- The rush to Raqqa, Islamic State’s capital on the banks of the Euphrates in Syria, marks the beginning of a new and perilous phase in one of the world’s most dangerous battle zones. The capture of the capital of Isis’s self-declared caliphate would be partly symbolic – the end of a fountainhead of terror – and partly material: Raqqa would provide a treasure trove of information about the workings of Isis. What is clear is that when Isis is routed, there’s a race to control vacated territory. The jostling between forces means care is required to ensure trigger-happy troops on the ground or in the air do not allow impatience to cloud good judgment.

Syria is a battlefield between a regime and an armed opposition, regional powers, Russia and the west. And it is entering an ominous phase in the almost six-year-old, multifaceted and evolving war that has devastated an entire country. Of the many battles between proxies, perhaps the most worrying are the clashes between forces supported by the US along with its coalition partners, and Iranian-backed groups acting in support of the Assad regime – with Russia as a powerful ally. And there are signs that five months into Donald Trump’s presidency, the risk of an overt confrontation between the US and other actors grows day by day.

On Monday, in response to the downing of a Syrian government fighter-bomber by the US, Russia announced that, for the first time in the conflict, it would treat any coalition plane or drone flying west of the Euphrates as a “target”. Pentagon officials said they’d acted in “self-defence”, after Assad forces had attacked US-supported Syrian and Kurdish fighters heading for Raqqa. Whether a bluff or not, the Russian warning marked an escalation in an already tense standoff. Today it was reported that a Russian fighter jet came within five feet of a US warplane over the Baltic Sea. Another unprecedented and equally worrying development came when Iran fired seven cruise missiles into Isis-controlled eastern Syria on Sunday, in retaliation for attacks on the Iranian parliament and the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini. This has to be set beside the fact that US forces have twice in 12 days shot down Iranian-made armed drones. Competition has intensified among the key actors: what will a post-Isis Syria look like? Who will dominate it? The dynamics at work are a recipe for more, not less, violence.

The Assad regime hopes to make use of its Iranian and Russian backers to recapture territories that revolted against it in 2011, and on whose populations it has unleashed untold levels of violence. Moscow and Tehran must be held responsible for their role in the human catastrophe of the Syrian conflict, where an estimated 400,000 people have been killed since 2011. And the manifest absence of a coherent US strategy for Syria’s future after Isis should not be overlooked. President Trump offers little vision, preferring to let his generals drive the agenda. US airstrikes, causing severe casualties among civilians, have failed to dispel this indifference. And, while there is no clear plan for Syria, the Trump administration has adopted a more aggressive approach to Iran, and has reportedly considered seeking to break Moscow’s military and diplomatic alliance with Tehran to end Assad’s war.

The Syrian imbroglio has to be seen in the light of regional realignments. Earlier this week the Iraqi prime minister, a key ally of Iran, was in Riyadh in an effort to foster reconciliation. Saudi Arabia and Israel are planning trade talks, and attempts by Gulf Sunni monarchies to isolate Qatar, a backer of the Arab spring movements, saw Turkey say it would airlift troops to the wealthy emirate for war games. Such tumult increases the chances that miscalculations or accidental incidents could easily spark a wider conflagration, whose spiralling effect no one could then control. These are perilous times. Smart thinking and cool heads are urgently needed on all sides in Syria.