New U.S. plan for Syria gives Assad the upper hand

By Abdullah Ghadawi

(Zaman Al Wasl)- The Syrian arena is witnessing today more than ever major transformations that has strategic dimensions at the political and military levels following successful truces in several regions and the activation of the plan of de-escalation zones, coinciding with a political movement to reshape The Syrian National Coalition (SNC).

At the same time, UN envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura succeeded to put out the voices calling for Assad's ouster by presenting the concept of the four baskets.

Zaman al-Wasl learned from senior sources that the United States of America has a certain plan for a year and it is the first time that Washington has a clear perspective of the Syrian crisis since the outbreak of the revolution in 2011 which is considered a development in the US strategy.

-The regime offensive on Ghouta-

The American perspective- the sources hinted is consistent with Russian policy on Syria- suggests that the fate of the Syrian Ghouta will be in the hands of the Assad regime especially after Russia became a reliable part after the Armistice Agreement. This may explain the regime's fierce attack on Ein Tarma and some areas of Ghouta in the past two days.

The American perspective is an initial perception of the situation in Syria, as Washington sees the possibility of regime recapturing Jisr al-Shugoor. This means that the US administration will not oppose any attack by the regime supported by Russia and the Iranian militias on the Jisr al-Shugoor and the regime will stop at this city.

It seems that the situation in Idlib has become a dilemma for the American administration, and despite the US State Department statement on the city of Idlib and the warning of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham expansion in Idlib, it is clear through the American plan the situation will stay unchanged without any of the players on the ground advancing towards Idlib at least in the next ten months. The situation in Idlib can be called the "containment process" until there is an understanding of the rest of the files.

According to the reliable source, two prominent figures interested in the Syrian issue put the general outlines for the situation in Syria next year, pointing out that the US administration objects the Iranian deployment in the south, and there will be a discharge of the Israeli border depth of 55 kilometers of Iranian militias and maybe regime or opposition will fill this area but Iran is prohibited from occupying it.

On the situation in the Syrian north, Russia and US prefers the conflict remains the same especially since the points of friction between the Euphrates Shield and Turkey on the one hand and the Syrian Democratic Forces on the other are liable to explode at any moment. Which called on Washington to stabilize the military reality in the north as it is without moving any party.

In this context, towns such as Tal Refaat may remain under the control of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), while all parties are committed to calm on the basis of US-Russian recommendations and their desire to stop the fighting, or rather to freeze it indefinitely.

-Future of Deir al-Zor-

The Great Surprise is the Future of Deir al-Zor. It is likely that (SDF) will have a central role in the liberation of Deir al-Zor from ISIS while there will be participation of some factions so that the militia led by the (YPG) does not have the battle for itself. However, any force that will fight the battle against ISIS must deal with (SDF).

The sources pointed out that the US-Kurdish cooperation will continue in the long term, noting that Washington expects to continue to align with the Kurds up to 10 years to come, especially since the ten US bases spread in the Kurdish areas.

Concerning Assad, it seems that the US administration is aware that there is no future for Assad in Syria, but the question of his removal from power is not a priority at this stage, at least until the elimination of terrorist organizations, especially al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

There are questions about this American plan, what is the fate of Iran and Hezbollah and their militias, and what is the reality of the division of Syria, and the big question, how does the war end and how is dealing with the opposition will proceed for a political settlement?