The only way to be assured that Syrian chemical
weapons will not be used in the future is not through a military strike but
through a successful international effort.
Regardless of the postponed congressional vote regarding the use of
military force, other actions should be
taken to address the situation in Syria, including an urgent effort to convene
without conditions the long-delayed peace conference the United States and Russia
announced in May. A resolution in the
U.N. General Assembly to condemn any further use of chemical weapons,
regardless of perpetrator, would be approved overwhelmingly, and the United
States should support Russia’s proposal that Syria’s chemical weapons be placed under U.N. control. A military strike
by the United States is undesirable and will become unnecessary if this
alternative proposal is strongly supported by the U.N. Security Council.
If fully implemented in dozens of sites
throughout Syria, this effort to secure the chemical weapons would amount to a
cease-fire, with a large U.N. peacekeeping force deployed. In the best of
circumstances, this could lead to convening the Geneva peace conference,
perhaps including Iran, that could end the conflict.
Some have predicted catastrophic
consequences to the credibility of President Obama and our country if Congress
were to reject his request for approval of military action against the Assad regime in Syria. These dire predictions are exaggerated. It is no
reflection on the president that he expressed his decision clearly to our
citizens and to the world, properly sought congressional concurrence and has
done his utmost to implement his decision by securing necessary votes in the
House and Senate. All U.S. presidents have been forced to endure highly
publicized rejections of major proposals concerning both domestic and
international issues. This is to be expected in any democratic nation, as has
occurred recently in Britain and might soon happen in France.
It requires a lot of political courage to
risk a public rejection, especially when the decision is believed to be right
but known to beunpopular with the public, many allies and top military leaders. There is a
special problem when the Security Council is divided on an issue the United
States considers crucial and when our NATO allies refuse to take a stand. It is
well known that some of the president’s political adversaries will not support
any conceivable proposal he might make, that dovish members of Congress are
likely to oppose military action and that some congressional hawks want strong
and sustained action to change the course of the Syrian civil war. Going ahead
with limited military action after a rejection by Congress would amplify many
of these critical voices.
The president has wisely refused to answer
media questions about how he would proceed if his efforts failed in Congress.
If and when a vote takes place, there will be many factors involved, but the
assumption of compliance is best because supportive votes would be lost by the
president saying he would ignore a negative vote. Many legislators will be
looking, at least in part, for popularity with constituents who strongly oppose
using force. For those who are eager to see a strike against Syria, a
presidential pledge to attack without approval would make it possible to
achieve their objective without alienating voters back home. And for those who
oppose military action but are willing to alienate constituents because of
loyalty to the president, his pledge to ignore a congressional decision might
lessen their commitment to him.
Despite all of the back and forth, some facts about
the situation are generally accepted. Incontrovertible proof has been presented
by Secretary of State John Kerry that
there has been horrific use of chemical weapons in Syria. The international
community should take concerted action to discourage or prevent a repetition of
this crime. Although Security Council condemnation of Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad is not possible because of division among world leaders about who is
responsible for the atrocity, and a strong condemnatory resolution is likely to
be vetoed, the ultimate goal of deterring future use of weapons of mass
destruction would be greatly enhanced if the major powers were unanimous in
their commitment.
Many members of Congress are still in a quandary concerning the ultimate
consequences of an attack. The Syrian regime has had adequate time to
intermingle war materiel and civilians, and more noncombatants in Syria will be
vulnerable to U.S. missiles and bombs. Any casualties among them will be
exaggerated and exploited to bring additional condemnation on the United States
within the Arab world. The effect of limited airstrikes would be transient at
best, but a sustained and robust action is more likely to incur a deeper and
more lengthy U.S. involvement and result in additional waves of refugees.
Despite the claims and counterclaims that have surrounded the chemical attack near Damascus on Aug. 21 and an unknown number of earlier attacks, the issues are now clearly defined. The main goals of condemning the use of these outlawed weapons and preventing their further use can still be realized by concerted international action.
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