(Reuters) - Syria's economy,
rocked by four years of civil war, is shrinking fast as industrial and
agricultural output falls, leaving almost two thirds of the population
in extreme poverty, according to a U.N. sponsored report released on
Wednesday. The study, conducted by the Damascus based-Syrian Centre for Policy Research and commissioned by the United Nations, International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates of a 40 percent contraction in GDP since the start the conflict in 2011. Almost half of Syria's five million labor force is unemployed. "The tempo of contraction in the economy has accelerated now," Syrian Center researcher Zaki Mehchy told Reuters. Losses
were estimated at $143.8 billion, a figure the report said was based on
estimated damage to residential and state buildings. Experts said it
was too early to ascertain more accurately as the heaviest hit areas are
still combat zones. A big
blow to Assad's financial resources was the loss of most of Syria's oil
production of around 400,000 bpd, with eastern regions now mainly under
rebel control. The government now gets a mere 16,500 barrels per day of
crude oil, although the fall in gas production has been less severe. A
major outcome of Syria's economic devastation was politically
influential cartels who strip state assets through plundering and
pillaging of resources and now have a stake in prolonging the conflict,
the report said. "There
are powerful forces that are exploiting resources of the country from
theft to land and oil smuggling and appropriating them. They now have an
incentive in the conflict going on," Mehchy said. The report said Syria,
once a lower middle income country with a $67 billion GDP before the
crisis that was witnessing expanding investments and fast growth, was
now being transformed into a country "of poor people" . Three
in every four Syrians lived in poverty at the end of 2013 and more than
half of its nearly 20 million people, many displaced or refugees
abroad, pauperized and surviving in extreme poverty. "The incidence of poverty in Syria has now reached catastrophic levels," the report said. The
independent Damascus-based NGO, which collates information from
official and non-governmental sources, said the worst off Syrians lived
in conflict areas and areas that were under siege in rural Damascus
where many face hunger, malnutrition and starvation. The United Nations says more than 150,000 people have been killed in a war that has reduced entire districts of Syria's main cities to ruins. The
conflict had dramatically changed the economy's pre-uprising
diversified economy. Government services and agriculture accounts for
more than 50 percent of a much smaller economy. It
has also dealt a severe blow to tourism revenues that earned Syria
billions of dollars and has damaged its preeminent role as a
transhipment hub from Europe to the Gulf. Public debt reached 126 percent of GDP in 2013 as the country continued to import mainly oil and basic commodities to alleviate shortages, the report said. Syria was increasingly indebted to Iran,
Damascus's main regional ally that has extended a $3 billion credit
line that economists say has helped keep the economy afloat. The Syrian authorities faced an "economic double bind" of ensuring costly subsidies of basic commodities
continue to stave off discontent while at the same time reallocating a
bigger share of public resources to a costly military campaign to regain
control over rebel-held areas, the report said. Economists
however say the loss of large parts of northern and eastern Syria from
government control, where the authorities no longer provide the same
level of services or supplies of subsidized food, has also relieved
pressures on state spending. The more than three-year-old conflict has led to business
closures and capital flight to neighboring countries that have seen
some major Syrian businesses relocating abroad to recoup losses and
continue production.
Syria's economy heads into ruin: U.N. sponsored report
Zaman Alwasl
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