Would the next Coalition's president 'come out of blue' once ?

 (Writing by Abdullah Raja; Transation by Yusra Ahmed)

ISTANBUL-(Zaman Alwasl)- If Ahmad Jarba, the President of the National Coalition, and Mostafa Sabbagh, the former Secretary General left the competition for the Coalition presidency due at the end of this month, finding a new president for the Coalition would be easier. Jarba would be not able to nominate himself for the third time according to the rules of procedure of the National Coalition, besides, Sabbagh has dismissed the idea of nomination for the presidency.

The question now is who would be the next Coalition’s president and how things would go.

Till now, there are no nominees for the Coalition presidency competition, however, many names have been put forward, like Dr. Riyadh Hijab, despite he has not announced his intention to nominate himself. Another name is Hadi al-Bahra, the main coordinator of Geneva2 talks. Between these two name, others appear like Michael Kilo and Bader Jamoos, the Secretary General. It seems that no other names apart from these.

Kilo and the balance role

In reality, Kilo’s nomination would be crucial for the coming election for two reasons, the first is that his nomination would be at the expense of Hadi al-Bahra as both close to Jarba and it is not expected for them to divide their bulk’s votes inside the Coalition.

The second reason is Kilo’s good international and regional reputation and recognition, and his nomination would have good chances to win the presidency. However, it looks that Kilo is hesitant to nominate himself, as he used to be free from the presidency pressure and balance consideration within the Coalition. Besides, he used to play a balance role between opposition’s forces since the beginning of the Syrian revolution in general, and since his Democratic bulk entered the Coalition.

The other scenario is that Kilo would not nominate himself, in this case, the presidency election battle would be exclusively between al-Bahra and Hijab, because Jamoos is not very well recognized regionally, while Hijab is competitive in his experience as a former, defected Prime Minister, and he is internationally accepted and recognized, added to his good relationships with Gulf countries.

On the other hand, al-Bahra can be seen as an extension for Jarba, and he is close to Saudi Arabia, besides his activities away from media as a General Secretary.

Weight of the National Council and Muslim Brotherhood

As far as number is concerned, the national Council and Muslim Brotherhood inside the coalition are the most powerful, and whoever manages to win those big bulks’ support within the Coalition, would have far better chances, even crucial in winning the Presidency. Initially, it is expected that the 44 votes who withdrew from the General Assembly meeting when Jarba was re-elected for second time six months ago, would support Hijab, as he was one of them. On the other hand, the national figures, the Local Councils and the Syrian Forum for Business support Sabbagh, and definitely would not give their votes to someone close to Jarba.

For Muslim Brotherhood, the mistake that Jarba has committed by sending congratulations to Abel Fattah al-Sisi for winning the Presidency Election in Egypt, would be unforgivable, and the revenge might take place in voting.

It is almost certain that the 14 votes the Military council has would go to al-Bahra, as most its members have good relationship with Jarba, while other independent votes would not be able to decide yet.

When the names of nominees are announced, mapping of the votes’ directions would be clearer, however, surprises have place in elections as well, as far as Jarba won the Coalition presidency twice, out of blue.