If Lebanon goes bankrupt, what will be the impact on Syrian economy?

A report by "Hashtag Syria" reviewed the possible effects on the Syrian economy if the Lebanese economy were declared bankrupt.

The pro-regime news website indicated that the first effects will affect the flow of Egyptian gas supplies and Jordanian electricity to Lebanon, which were scheduled to pass through Syria, and from which Syria was expected to obtain a small share of (10%) of the Egyptian gas, with a percentage of (8%) of the Jordanian electricity.

Egyptian gas supplies could help the Syrian economy to support its energy sector, and therefore Syria will not get those quotas now because of Lebanon's inability to pay the value of that energy bill.

The second of these effects is the cessation or decline of Syrian exports to Lebanon, which are estimated at about (59) million euros during the first seven months of 2021, which constitutes about (15%) of the value of Syrian exports during the same period, and this means a new financial loss for the Syrian economy.

Syria will also lose customs duties incurred on Syrian imports from Lebanon due to the faltering of manufacturing and importation in Lebanon, and the decline in the ability of the Lebanese economy to export to Syria, and this means the loss of a financial resource that feeds the Syrian state treasury.

Among the most prominent effects, the remittances of Syrian workers from Lebanon to Syria have declined as a result of the collapse of the Lebanese pound and the severe damage to the labor market.

In addition to the complete loss of the Syrian depositors' money in Lebanese banks, for which there is no accurate number about their actual value, which means in one way or another the loss of Syrian economic wealth.

The website added that if the Lebanese economy turns to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in order to obtain short and long-term loans, the Lebanese economy will be constrained by the terms of lending to these international institutions, which will impose on it a curb on aggregate demand and the privatization of economic facilities, and may impose political conditions on it from order to implement what it calls economic reforms.

Perhaps these conditions will affect the Syrian economy again in the export sector, remittances of Syrian workers, and other economic relations.

The "Hashtag Syria" website did not mention anything about the impact of the bankruptcy of the Lebanese state on the exchange rate of the Syrian pound, which is expected to be one of the most affected, according to many analysts.