Israel-Hamas ceasefire: What’s next for Gaza and the future of the conflict?

Celebrations erupted across the world after the US, Egypt, and Qatar announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas to end more than 15 months of fighting in Gaza, in return for the release of hostages and gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the war-torn strip.

The muti-phased deal will be a “day-by-day” process, experts say, the outcome of which cannot be predicted just yet. The success of the agreement largely depends on both sides holding their end of the deal, starting with the successful release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners and the peaceful withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.

As the six-week deal goes into effect today and the initial excitement settles down, questions linger over the impact of the agreement on the future of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

While the deal ensures the release of Israeli captives held in Gaza, it also comes with a caveat: Israel failed to achieve its main objective of eliminating the rule of Hamas in Gaza – a point repeatedly emphasized by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to keep the war going.

The ceasefire agreement also threatens Netanyahu’s political position as key Israeli leaders in his already fragile coalition government have publicly spoken against the ceasefire, calling it a “catastrophe” and even resigned from the cabinet.

“This deal will lead to an ultimate permanent ceasefire, which currently means that Hamas essentially stays in power in some way,” Shmuel Rosner, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, told Al Arabiya English.

Speaking from Tel Aviv, Rosner described how the ceasefire agreement has left many Israelis debating if it was irresponsible on Israel’s part to accept the deal. While a lot of people in Israel welcomed the ceasefire, including the families of the hostages in Gaza, others protested it, citing the presence of Hamas as a significant threat to Israeli safety.

For Palestinians, the agreement is a means to stopping the “genocide” and putting an end to the devastation in the Gaza Strip.

“This [ceasefire agreement] means stopping the genocide in Gaza and the war crimes faced by Palestinians, including starvation, collective punishment, and ethnic cleansing,” Mustafa Barghouti, the political leader of Palestinian National Initiative (PNI), told Al Arabiya English.

“For us, the most important thing is to stop the devastation and the destruction.”

Will the ceasefire last?

The ceasefire agreement promises a permanent end to the war. Still, experts remain apprehensive, given that both Israel and Hamas have accused each other of backtracking on agreements in the past and resumed fighting. A small miscalculation on either side can derail the deal and plunge the region into another cycle of war.

The truce rollout already got delayed on Sunday after Netanyahu said at the very last minute that it would not take effect until the Palestinian militant group provided a list of the hostages to be released.

Hamas, in its part, while “affirming its commitment” to the terms of the ceasefire, said the delay was due to “technical reasons.”

Meanwhile, Israel continued to strike Gaza, killing at least eight and wounding 25 others.

Netanyahu said in a televised address on Saturday that Israel retains the right to resume the war in Gaza should negotiations for a second phase of the ceasefire deal prove futile.

“If we need to resume fighting, we will do that in new ways and we will do it with great force,” he said.

Sunday should see the return of the first three Israeli hostages held in Gaza. Later, Hamas is supposed to release an additional 33 hostages. In exchange, Israel will release 1,890 Palestinian captives from prisons.

“It is very much up to Netanyahu and what his interests are,” Haggai Matar, the Executive Director of the Israeli magazine +972, told Al Arabiya English.

“[Donald] Trump and Netanyahu will decide whether or not this deal will materialize and how long it can survive from the first phase to the next two phases and end the war.”

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The incoming Trump administration in the US might just be the key to ending the war, according to experts, many of whom have credited Trump for putting additional pressure on Netanyahu and getting him to sign a deal much like what the administration of US President Joe Biden had proposed almost eight months ago.

“Trump has, in the past, said he wants the war to end and prevent it from escalating again,” Matar said, adding that the US can be really powerful when it “chooses to put its foot down.”

Experts also say that war fatigue and heavy casualties on both sides and continuous protests might push Israel and Hamas into following through with the ceasefire agreement.

According to Thabet Abu Rass, the co-executive director of the Abraham Initiatives in Israel, the war has taken its toll on Israel – tanking Tel Aviv’s economy and causing deep fragmentation in Israeli society marked by continuous protests – and Hamas – due to its weakened allies and the mounting death toll in Gaza.

“Israeli people are tired of this war,” Abu Rass, who resides in Israel, said. “I have seen petitions from parents of soldiers who are not willing to fight anymore.”

He added: “Hamas has also been weakened over time, given the destruction and the loss of life in the Gaza Strip. I think it is in the interest of both parties to end the war.”

Preventing history from repeating itself

The ceasefire deal is a milestone in the months-long brutal war that has wreaked havoc on the besieged Gaza Strip, but experts say it’s a long road to peace and there is still work that needs to be done to ensure “history does not repeat itself.”

“It is very easy to be excited about the ceasefire, but the core of the underlying problems of this reality that has led us to where we have been in the past few months is still there, and nobody is talking about solving them right now,” Matar said.

World leaders have issued statements, celebrating the ceasefire, but there has been little talk on resolving the core issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and what the future looks like for Palestinians in the war-torn strip.

“Right now, it is really important to move ahead with the reconstruction and rehabilitation of Gaza, but in the longer term, it is about ending the entire system of occupation and siege,” Matar concluded.