Has Syria become a theater for a proxy war between Turkey and Israel?

The Associated Press reported that the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime has exacerbated the already tense relations between Turkey and Israel, noting that the two sides' conflicting interests in Syria are pushing the relationship toward a potential collision course.

The agency noted that Turkey, which has long supported groups opposed to Assad, advocates for a stable and unified Syria where a central government maintains authority over the entire country. It welcomed an agreement signed this week by the new Syrian government with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate them into the Syrian government and military.

On the other hand, the Associated Press says that Israel harbors deep suspicions of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, is wary of Turkish influence in Syria, and appears to prefer a fragmented Syria now that the country has become a launching pad for Iran and its proxies under Assad's rule.

Turkish-Israeli Clash

Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution said, "Syria has become a proxy war between Turkey and Israel, who see each other as regional rivals. This is a very dangerous dynamic because there is a clash in Turkish and Israeli positions on everything related to the political transition in Syria."

Following Assad's fall, Israel seized territory in southern Syria. Israeli officials said this was aimed at keeping "hostile groups" away from its border. Israel also launched airstrikes targeting military positions abandoned by Assad's forces and expressed plans to maintain a long-term presence in the area.

The Syrian government and the United Nations asserted that the Israeli incursions violated the 1974 ceasefire agreement between the two countries and called on Israel to withdraw.

Analysts say Israel is concerned about the possibility of Türkiye expanding its military presence inside Syria. Since 2016, Turkey has launched operations in northern Syria against militants linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), maintaining influence in the north of the country. Turkish Defense Ministry officials have stated that Ankara and Damascus are now cooperating to bolster the country's security.

A Fragmented Syria

Nimrod Goren, head of the Mitvim Institute, an Israeli foreign policy think tank, said that unlike Turkey, which supports a strong, centralized, and stable Syria, Israel currently appears to prefer a fragmented Syria, believing it can enhance Israel's security.

He noted that Israel is "concerned about Sharia and its Islamic connections, and fears that its unified force could pose what Israel describes as a jihadist threat along its northern border."

For her part, Işgül Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution considered the escalation of tensions a serious concern, saying, "In the past, Israel and Turkey occasionally clashed, but were able to separate the security relationship from everything else. Now, however, they are actively seeking to undermine each other. The question is: Do the two countries know their red lines?"

A report from the Institute for National Security Studies, a think tank headed by a former head of Israeli military intelligence, suggests that Israel could benefit from engaging with Turkey, "the only regional power with significant influence over the Syrian leadership, to reduce the risk of military conflict between Israel and Syria."