Syria on brink: Who plays sedition card?

In light of the escalating bloody violence on the Syrian coast and the assassination of prominent figures, urgent questions are emerging: Who truly benefits from fueling strife in Syria? Are they internal forces seeking to consolidate their influence, or are external parties reshuffling their cards in a complex regional game?

International Studies Professor Shaher Al-Shaher told Sky News Arabia's Newsroom that the situation in Syria is tense, and that there are several motivations for assassinations and killings, both personal and political, without ruling out any external role.

He added, "If the interior is strong and cohesive, the outside world will be unable to do anything." This sums up the complexities and events facing Syria today, as internal interests intertwine with external interventions, making the country an arena for multifaceted conflicts.

For his part, political and human rights activist Adnan Al-Ahmad believes that Syrian society is experiencing a state of instability and mistrust among its components, making it vulnerable to targeting by external forces.

He says, "When there is injustice and exclusion of some segments of the population, the seeds of discord begin to form, and this is where the forces that seek to exploit this negative atmosphere intervene."

Iran: A Regional Player in the Syrian Scene

Al-Shaher points out that Iran is a major regional player in Syria and emphasizes the need to reset relations with it.

He says, "Iran must not feel that it has emerged defeated, and that it is working to obstruct what Syria has achieved."

He also believes that communication between the Syrian government and Iran, especially through Qatari mediation, could be a positive step toward easing tensions. However, Al-Ahmad offers a different perspective, saying, "Iran has no popularity on the Syrian coast, and it is considered responsible for a large portion of Syrian bloodshed from the perspective of the community there."

He points out that the presence of Iranian forces in Syria further complicates the crisis, especially with the ongoing daily violations and the proliferation of weapons outside state control.

Internal Causes: A Collapsed Economy and Armed Chaos

The Syrian crisis cannot be understood without considering the internal causes that fuel it. Al-Shaher says, "The economic situation on the Syrian coast and in other areas is stressful, pushing people toward illegal and illegitimate behavior."

He adds that armed factions that previously operated outside state control are now part of the government, further complicating the situation.

Al-Ahmad highlights the systematic violations on the Syrian coast, saying, "Today we are talking about hundreds of thousands of displaced people who have been forced from their homes for fear of being killed."

He points out that the formation of investigative committees without the participation of the victims' families increases suspicion and mistrust, deepening the crisis.

Who controls Syria's fate?

With the involvement of regional and international parties in the Syrian crisis, many are wondering whether Syria is witnessing a recalibration of the map of influence. Al-Shaher believes that the constitutional declaration may be a step toward relative stability, but he warns that the complexities are much deeper.

He says, "This crisis could be an opportunity for the legitimate president to firmly and decisively prove that he is capable of holding any negligent parties accountable."

On the other hand, Al-Ahmad points out that the absence of the United States from the Syrian scene opens the door to new regional interventions, especially from Turkey and Israel. He says, "The absence of the United States leaves the door open again, especially in light of a country that lacks control over its territory."

Sedition is a tool in a larger game

It appears that inciting sedition in Syria serves the interests of multiple parties, both internal and external. While the regime seeks to exploit the crisis to strengthen its position, regional and international powers are working to rearrange the cards of influence in the country. Amid this complex situation, the Syrian people remain the most affected, suffering from insecurity and deteriorating economic and social conditions.

Syria today is on a hot plate, with each party playing its cards, but the price is paid by the Syrians who seek stability that seems elusive in light of these intertwined interventions.