The overthrow of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was a great thing for Mohammed al-Badawi. His sales doubled, and he could now sell his imported drinks at low prices from Turkey throughout Syria, not just in Idlib, the former opposition stronghold to which he had previously imported his goods.
For Haytham Joud, however, the story is completely different. His business has collapsed. He had built his food, beverage, and consumer goods empire in the capital, Damascus, under the strict controls of the protectionist Assad regime, but he is now wary of the new government's experiment with a free market economy.
"The economy was based on a few controls. Now those controls are gone, so there will be an opening to imports. We need to see what happens to local industry. This is a big challenge," Joud said in a small hotel he owns within the walls of Damascus's Old City.
The contrast between the two cases reveals a shift in Syria since the opposition, led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), seized power in December. The new administration promised to eliminate the cronyism that had persisted for decades under the Assad family, when the economy was controlled by a handful of tycoons.
Many Syrians are more optimistic than ever that their country will be able to rebuild after more than 14 years of conflict.
Idlib is the biggest beneficiary
But Syria's rapid opening has shifted the economic power to companies in the northwestern province of Idlib and entities linked to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, according to more than a dozen prominent businessmen, officials, and analysts told Reuters.
This is fueling resentment among some members of the business community and ordinary citizens, mostly in areas formerly under regime control, who fear it is simply replacing one form of patronage with another, increasing tensions in a country divided along ethnic and religious lines.
"There is a lot of resentment," says Jihad Yazigi, editor of the English-language Syria Report newsletter. "Things are good for the few traders in Idlib, while things are very bad for the many other Syrians." Yazigi said that despite the backlash, the momentum of the new administration is strengthening its position now that the Assad regime has been ousted. "It's hard to oppose it," he added.
The Syrian Ministry of Economy did not respond to a request for comment.
Analysts say that while businessmen in former regime-held areas struggle to adapt, Idlib's traders are benefiting from an expanding domestic market.
These traders benefit from strong ties with neighboring Turkey, a longtime supporter of the former Syrian opposition that is poised to play a major economic and political role.
From his warehouse in the thriving town of Sarmada, near the Turkish border, Al-Badawi watches a forklift operator transport newly arrived cartons of soda from across the border. "They are hungry for everything inside Syria," he said.
The transformation of the Syrian economy is in line with the centralized power structure of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria's reconstituted state. The group appointed its allies to head key ministries, installed its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, as president for a five-year transitional period, and made Idlib companies major service providers.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is examining dozens of companies in former regime areas, searching for links to the old regime and seeking compensation through negotiations with companies believed to have benefited from Assad's rule.
Public sector salaries across Syria are paid via the Sham Cash app, linked to HTS. However, significant geographical disparities remain among government employees. In Damascus, people line up in long lines at ATMs every morning to withdraw the maximum permitted cash. Such scenes do not occur in Idlib.
Residents of areas formerly under regime control continue to receive salaries several times lower than those of employees in Idlib, after the promised 400 percent public sector pay increase failed to materialize.
Many people cannot afford the imported Nescafe instant coffee and Bounty candy bars that have replaced the locally made imitation products that were previously on store shelves.
From Planned Economy to Openness
The Syrian economy has historically consisted of a mix of industry, agriculture, and a strong commercial sector. The World Bank estimates that annual output has fallen by up to 90 percent from around $60 billion on the eve of the 2011 anti-Assad protests that sparked the civil war.
US sanctions, which stifle economic activity, remain in place despite limited suspension, preventing the resumption of large-scale foreign trade.
Meanwhile, Syria's new rulers pride themselves on Idlib as a model of free markets, built under impossible conditions after wresting it from the Assad regime more than a decade ago.
In Damascus, old cars roam the city streets, darkened by power outages. Slow internet reduces remote work to a minimum, and state institutions are overstaffed but their productivity is weak.
But in Idlib, fleets of newly imported cars, including Range Rovers and Mini Coopers, line up in the city via Türkiye from around the world. According to prices quoted by three car dealers, these cars are selling for a third of what they were under Assad. Although cars also arrive via Syria's Mediterranean ports and a southern crossing with Jordan, car dealers say buyers are flocking to Idlib due to lower prices.
According to a spokesperson for the General Authority of Syrian Land and Sea Ports, trade volume at Idlib's Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey increased 42 percent in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year.
Al-Badawi said, "Traders from the Idlib region will undoubtedly have an impact on Syria because the environment is fertile, relations exist, and access to any country in the world is ongoing and developing daily. As for the interior regions, they have connections, but they are weak." He added, "I am very optimistic."
Haitham Joud, however, does not share this optimistic view. Among his most important projects: an exclusive franchise to manufacture and distribute PepsiCo soft drink products in Syria.
Jude noted that sales have declined by about 70 percent since the fall of Assad, due to competition from importers like Al-Badawi and the collapse in purchasing power linked to the currency shortage.
Jude said, "The term 'free economy' is very nice, but we need to see the details." Abdullah Al-Dardari, Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations, Assistant Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and Director of the UNDP Regional Bureau for Arab States, who is Syrian-born, said that the state must formulate trade policies, including customs duties, if it wants to protect Syrian industries.
He asked, "Do we rely on market forces to determine this, without intervening in privatization? At the moment, that will not be successful."
Declining Corruption and Nepotism
Even importing basic goods, such as medicine or wheat, was difficult under Assad, as traders waited months to obtain hard currency through a government platform because direct dollar transactions were illegal.
Syrian officials told Reuters that about $600 million deposited on the platform before Assad's fall was lost, leaving businesses in areas controlled by the former regime facing a cash shortage. The missing funds from the platform have not previously been reported.
In Idlib, transactions were accepted in Turkish lira or dollars, but not Syrian pounds. Electricity supplied by Turkey was available almost constantly, and the city's telecommunications network provided fast internet.
Businessmen in Idlib said they viewed the ability to rebuild the economy as a form of resistance to Assad. Those in areas previously under regime control said they suffered extortion and favoritism.
“When the country was liberated, we realized that even though we were under bombardment, they were the ones who were being destroyed,” said Mustafa al-Ta’a, head of the local Federation of Syrian Chambers of Commerce, which was founded in Idlib in 2014.
In his elegant office in Sarmada, equipped with Wi-Fi, Ta’a uses scannable barcodes to quickly register businesses.
In February, Syria’s new rulers appointed his colleague, Alaa al-Ali, as head of the Federation of Syrian Chambers of Commerce, a move seen as a sign of Idlib’s growing role.
These chambers are non-governmental but have broad powers in shaping trade relations within Syria.
“Idlib is the nucleus,” al-Ali said in an interview with Reuters from his ornate office in Damascus.
But he said no one would receive preferential treatment based on their connections to the new authorities, and said his mission was to eradicate corrupt practices and include all entrepreneurs in the economy.
He added, "People here didn't expect it to be like this. They had a bad image that we came to kill them, loot them, and steal their money, but they saw respect from us."
Eight merchants from Damascus reported a positive shift in tone and approach, saying that the government now listens to them and they feel more free to speak out.
"They take responsibility, and they are decision-makers," said Nadine Shawi, a businesswoman from a Christian family who was recently appointed to the Damascus Chamber of Commerce.
"The main difference is corruption. Before, you felt that nothing could be done without paying someone, but that feeling is gone."
However, she said her pharmaceutical import business has been hurt by changing regulations, smuggling, new competition, and a decline in purchasing power. "We're not really selling," she said.
Employees at Riva Pharma, a pharmaceutical company founded in Idlib in 2014 by Syrians who fled the Assad government, are currently working extra shifts to meet the demand for generic drugs.
The company has appointed more than 1,000 agents to market its products in other regions of Syria, such as Aleppo, Hama, and Damascus.
Sales Manager Mustafa Al-Daghim said of the regime change in Syria, "It was a qualitative shift for us in moving into the pharmaceutical industry, and with it, we developed."
He added, "The local market has become large, and we now have the opportunity to expand into other provinces."
Reuters
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