The eastern Euphrates region is witnessing unprecedented complexity, as the interests of regional and international powers intersect. American, French, and Russian forces are deployed alongside a Turkish military presence, while the SDF imposes its control over vast areas. Tribal factions operate in a volatile landscape, while Israel attempts to infiltrate through intelligence channels.
This region is the most sensitive in Syria, containing oil and gas fields and border crossings with Iraq and Turkey. This has made it an open arena for competition between Moscow and Washington, amidst close Turkish surveillance and security concerns related to the presence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Syria is Syrian Kitchen
The internal equation is more complex, as the region's residents face a dual reality: the SDF administration, based on a local security and military structure, and the influence of tribes demanding the handover of the region to the Syrian state.
Deir ez-Zor appears more volatile due to its dense oil fields, while Raqqa faces increasing service and security challenges. Hasakah has become a center of gravity for the conflict, with the presence of American and Russian military bases and its status as a key gateway to Iraq and Turkey.
With increasing international pressure to seek a settlement, various scenarios are being proposed, most notably: gradual reintegration of the regions into the central administration, or maintaining a form of administrative decentralization in exchange for guarantees of Kurdish cultural and political rights. Ankara, on the other hand, believes that any formula that does not take into account the security of its borders will remain unacceptable, while Washington and its allies insist on a military presence conditional on continuing the war against ISIS.
So far, there are no indications of a final agreement determining the fate of the region, but it is certain that any widespread security collapse will lead to a new war of attrition, which could drag the region into a prolonged cycle of violence and leave tens of thousands of casualties.
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