The number of Syrian refugees in Turkey has declined to 2.5 million, according to official Turkish figures, amid expectations from Ankara of an increase in the rate of voluntary returns.
Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya confirmed that the number of Syrian refugees residing in Turkey has declined to 2.5 million, after approximately 450,000 returned since the fall of the ousted president's regime in late 2024. He pointed out that the number of Syrians has declined significantly over the past three years, when the number of refugees registered under temporary protection was 3.5 million in 2022.
Since the fall of the regime, the number of Syrian refugees who have left Turkey has reached nearly half a million. Turkish political analyst Yusuf Katipoğlu believes this number indicates a strong desire among refugees to return to their country.
However, he stresses that Turkey is not about to force Syrian refugees to return to their country. He told Arabi21, "Turkey announced that return would be voluntary and safe, and has worked to do so by supporting the new Syrian government to enable the return of refugees. This can be seen in the return of half a million refugees since the change of power in Syria."
As for the remaining Syrian refugees, Katoglu asserts that "Turkey welcomes their presence, and anyone holding a temporary protection card (kimlik) will not be forced to return."
He emphasized that "Turkey does not consider refugees a burden, but rather an added value to Turkish society and the economy, especially since a large number of them are fluent in Turkish and familiar with Turkish culture, which, in his opinion, means they are the best ambassadors for the country."
Turkish Policy Towards Syrian Refugees
Turkish political analyst Abdullah Suleymanoglu agrees with Katoglu, considering that Turkey's policy towards the Syrian refugee issue is stable. He explained that "the increase in the number of Syrian refugees returning to their country remains dependent on stability in Syria, and we expect an increase in the pace of return before the start of the new school year."
Suleiman Oglu added to Arabi21 that "what is delaying the full return of Syrians is the lack of ready-made housing and the scarcity of job opportunities in Syria, despite the high cost of living in Turkey, including high rents and services."
Suleiman Oglu continued, "All countries experiencing wars do not record the rapid return of all refugees, and in Turkey we are accustomed to refugees of various nationalities remaining despite the end of the war in their countries."
He pointed out that a large number of Syrians have obtained Turkish citizenship, saying, "Therefore, some of these may not return to Syria, and parents may return without their children." He added, "However, the improvement of the economic and service situation in Syria certainly paves the way for the return of a large number of refugees."
For her part, Kinda Hawasli, Director of the Community Unit at the Syrian Dialogue Center, pointed out the absence of a plan to end the presence of Syrian refugees in Turkey and other host countries, particularly European ones.
In an interview with Arabi21, Hawasli confirmed that host countries are monitoring the situation in Syria, considering it safe, which would allow for a reconsideration of the refugee situation. She explained, "In Turkey's case, it seems Ankara wants a portion of the refugees to return to reduce their numbers and satisfy domestic public opinion. As for the rest, their presence serves Turkey's interests and its economy."
She noted what she considered a "shock to the Turkish labor market" if all Syrian refugees returned to their country, saying, "Turkey has left the decision to the personal desires of the refugees."
When asked why half a million refugees have returned since the fall of the regime, while the largest number remain, she said, "This is due to the circumstances of Syrian families. This means that families with good financial incomes have remained in Turkey, as have families whose members study in Turkish schools."
Home Insurance
Hawasli also noted that Syrian families are trying to save money before returning to their country, explaining that "returning requires providing housing in Syria. With the fall of the regime, Syrians' confidence in their country's future has increased, and they are now planning to secure housing. It is well known that the cost of reconstruction in Syria is high."
According to UN reports, humanitarian and logistical challenges remain in Syria, with returnees facing widespread destruction of their homes, collapsed infrastructure, and a lack of basic services such as electricity, water, health, and education, in addition to the remnants of war scattered throughout many areas.
All of this is compounded by fear of the future, as the situation in Syria remains explosive, especially given the unresolved fate of areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast of the country and in Sweida in the south.
Arabi21
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