The theory of Syria's trillion-dollar gas reserves

Youssef Qablawi's interview with the British newspaper, the Financial Times, regarding the "trillions of cubic meters of gas" awaiting discovery in Syria was striking. The CEO of the Syrian Petroleum Company's remarks carried a distinctly promotional tone, aimed at attracting international energy giants, some of whom have already begun exploring potential investment opportunities in Syria's anticipated "wealth." But how accurate are these claims of trillions of cubic meters of gas reserves in Syria?

Last June, information circulated from Wael Hamed Abdel-Moati, a gas and hydrogen expert at the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), who stated that proven recoverable gas reserves in Syria are estimated at approximately 15 trillion cubic feet. These figures pertain only to onshore fields, excluding unexplored offshore resources, whose initial estimates suggest the potential for 40 trillion cubic feet of gas off the Syrian coast.

However, more conservative estimates from the previous source indicate that Syria's proven gas reserves do not exceed 8.5 trillion cubic feet. As for unexplored gas off the Syrian coast, determining the size of its reserves remains difficult, as no actual gas exploration has previously taken place in Syrian economic waters. However, explorations in the economic waters of Egypt and Israel have increased hopes for the existence of viable quantities of gas off the Syrian coast.

The Syrian Petroleum Company's promotional strategy has relied on undiscovered gas in Syria, as evidenced by Qablawi's statement: "Perhaps more than a quarter, or less than a third, of the land has been explored." He added, "There is still a lot of land in the country that hasn't been touched yet. There are trillions of cubic meters of gas."

The first energy giant to be drawn to Syria's promising gas reserves is the American company Chevron, which recently signed a contract to explore an offshore block. Work is expected to begin within two months, according to Qablawi. This agreement is a joint venture with the Qatari company Power International Holding. This development has attracted other players in the international oil and gas industry. According to Qablawi, a second block is under study by Qatar Energy and Total Energies. The American company ConocoPhillips and the Italian company Eni are also potential bidders. Qablawi is also seeking to attract companies specializing in deep-water exploration, and to this end, he plans to hold talks with the British company BP in London soon.

To create a greater competitive environment, the CEO of the Syrian Petroleum Company revealed that Syria is open to the entry of Russian and Chinese energy companies.

In his promotional efforts, Qablawi presented an offer to the Financial Times, proposing that existing oil fields be handed over to international companies for rehabilitation. The revenues from these fields would then be used to finance exploration in other areas. This is an attempt to fund the rehabilitation of severely damaged infrastructure in numerous oil and gas fields in the eastern region.

Qablawi's message to international companies included reassuring signals about the stability of the security situation and the government's firm control over "everything," as he put it.

Despite conservative expectations regarding Syria's potential gas reserves off its coast, the Chevron agreement, in particular, along with the entry of other international companies into the competition in this sector, can be interpreted as a positive indicator. It suggests that these specialized companies possess geological data that supports the theory that Syrian territorial waters hold viable gas reserves.