(Reuters) - In
the western Tunisian city of Kasserine, campaign posters plastered on
walls make plain what many voters want from Sunday's parliamentary
election -- jobs, whose scarcity has fueled unrest and militancy. Alongside portraits of
would-be lawmakers and party logos, scores of young people have posted
resumes, hoping to land job offers to lift them out of the economic
malaise that has troubled Tunisia's democratic evolution. Unemployment
in the olive and fruit farming region bordering Algeria is almost
double the national 15 percent. But since the revolution the region has
also been blighted by violence linked to Tunisia's low-intensity
conflict with Islamist militants. Four
years after the uprising that ousted Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali and
inspired the "Arab Spring" revolts, Tunisia is well on its way to
democracy, with a new constitution, multi-party competition and a broad
compromise among its leaders. Sunday's
ballot for a new 217-member parliament promises to consolidate a
transition seen as model in a region where other "Arab Spring" nations
who ousted long-ruling leaders in 2011 still struggle with polarization
and violence. But Tunisia,
heavily reliant on foreign tourism and remittances from overseas, has
yet to deliver on the promise of economic growth, jobs and opportunities
that partly inspired its 2011 revolution against a corrupt and
repressive regime. Nowhere
is that frustration and the risks it poses for Tunisia clearer than in
the interior, in cities like Kasserine where even before the revolt
unemployment and marginalization were rife and investment scarce. For
months, thousands of Tunisian troops have been encircling the mountains
trying to flush out militants who have attacked checkpoints and patrols
and even struck a minister's house in Kasserine in an assassination
bid. "We have nothing
here expect unemployment and terrorism," said Ibtissam Samaali, 30, an
accounting graduate jobless for a year. "We see no projects, no
investments. Kasserine was always forgotten and is still forgotten now." Like
others in the city, Samaali said she will still put her faith in an
election most analysts expect neither the leading Islamist party Ennahda
or secular rivals Nidaa Tounes to win outright, meaning a coalition
government is likely. Even
so, Tunisian officials say there is enough consensus among the parties
on the need for swift economic reform and job creation once lawmakers
decide on the new government, probably after presidential elections in
November. Tunisia's
premier told Reuters this month that the economy needs at least three
more years of painful reforms, including tax changes and subsidy cuts,
to revive growth after the damage caused by the 2011 revolt. Should
the parliament elections and transition to a new government go
smoothly, investment could revive, and help spur economic growth back to
the 5 percent pace which analysts believe is needed to cut
unemployment, now around 15 percent. Tunisia
expects growth of between 2.3 and 2.5 percent this year, but has begun
to slash subsidies to trim the budget deficit and impose new taxes, the
kind of reforms requested by international lenders providing vital
backing. "A unity
government will be in a strong position to implement fiscal austerity
measures, including the reform of the subsidy system, as requested by
the IMF," said Riccardo Fabiani, an analyst at Eurasia Group. SUBSIDY CUTBACKS, SECURITY Economic
benefits from the revolution are a sensitive question for many young
Tunisians. An act of self-immolation by Mohamed Bouazizi, an unemployed
graduate reduced to selling fruit and vegetables in the town of Sidi
Bouzid, sparked the unrest that led to the uprising. Cutting
back on subsidies also carries political risks. Last year in Kasserine
rioting broke out and one man was killed in clashes when the government
announced a tax hike on vehicles, one of several initial reforms. The IMF warned in a report last month that social tensions, strikes and demonstrations may slow the pace of reforms. "I'll
vote for those who will provide us jobs," said Ibrahim Assadi, an
unemployed man sitting in a cafe. "Our patience will not last long and
Kasserine will have a second revolution." Many
Tunisians are now more worried about economic development and the high
cost of living than political gains, but for Kasserine those questions
are more pressing. Regional governor Atef Boughatess estimates local
unemployment at around 26 percent. In
2011, Sidi Bouzid and Kasserine were the first Tunisian cities to rise
up, complaining of repression, marginalization and unemployment and
ending Ben Ali's 23-year rule. But
now the region is struggling with another complication as the military
hunts down Islamist militants who use the nearby mountains as a base. The
Chaambi, Saloum and Sammama mountains bordering with Algeria have
become a refuge for militant groups over the past two years, turning
Kasserine into a military barracks encircled by roadblocks to curb
attacks. "I am a father of
three young unemployed men and we are going through difficult times,"
said Mohamed Nasraoui. "But despite it being painful now, Kasserine will
vote to improve the situation." (Writing by Patrick Markey; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
In rural Tunisia, economic malaise weighs on voters
Reuters
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