(NOW)- The Islamic State (ISIS) has been battling Syrian state forces in Homs region for the past 10 days, pushing hard to acquire several natural gas fields and refineries, along with air bases and other military objectives. While the US-led coalition is busy watching the battle of Kobani, there is a battle in Homs that may further complicate the Syrian conflict and the region’s politics.
Syria is the only significant crude oil-producing country in the Levant. The country's main oil reserves are primarily located in the eastern part of the country, in the Deir Ezzor Governorate near the Iraqi border and along the Euphrates River. Much smaller fields are located between Deir Ezzor and Palmyra, a region that is richer in natural gas.
Prior to the war Syria exported most of its oil to Europe, with Italy and Germany its main customers, but oil extraction activities ceased after the civil war began. Natural gas, however, is vital for domestic electricity production. Homs provides the fuel for lighting up Damascus, which has been affected by very long electricity cuts, sometimes for over 10 hours. If ISIS were to gain control of the gas fields in Homs, it could be crippling for the regime.
According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency, despite coalition bombings in September, ISIS continues to control the Deir Ezzor oil region. “With their oil assets diminished, the militants are determined to gain access to additional sources of fuel and revenue,” the report warned. “To that end, they are intensifying attacks on Iraq’s largest refinery in Baiji, where elite Iraqi forces are standing guard. The 270,000 barrel-per-day facility has been offline since the militants’ early June offensive. Similarly, in Syria, where much of the militants’ refining capacity has been destroyed, the country’s two refineries near Banias and Homs that remain under the Assad government’s control may be targeted in the near future.”
The oil
At the beginning of the week, ISIS held six oil fields in Syria, including Al-Omar field, Syria’s largest. However, since the end of September, when airstrikes hit most of the makeshift “teacup” refineries in ISIS-controlled territory, the extremists had a hard time extracting and selling oil on the black market.
Even if they did, developments on the Syrian front are not as important for the international energy market. According to Reza Taheri, associate professor at the Department of Petroleum Engineering at the Lebanese American University, Syria holds no more 0.5% of the international energy market. “That’s the best case scenario!” he told NOW. “That was the case in 2010, when the country was pumping 400,000 barrels per day. By 2013, production got to 70,000 barrels per day.”
The Islamic State is far from being an oil state. “They pump 10,000 to 20,000 barrels per day, which means $1-2 million. Considering the expenses of this group, I think this is not a lot of money,” Taheri said. “One of the reasons is that they’re not selling it at market price, either. They sell just to cover their expenses, not more.” Taheri also explained that the organization doesn’t have the expertise and the human resources to pose a threat to the market, as most site personnel have fled.
However, the Syrian government did not run out of oil when ISIS took over its oil fields. The state is still in control of the oil refineries in Homs and Banias, although only the installation in Banias can run at full capacity refining imported crude. The refinery in Homs has been hit by rebels several times and was bombed, by accident, by the Syrian Air Force in 2013.
The gas
ISIS announced Monday on its Twitter account that its fighters had taken control of the Homs Jahar refinery, the second largest natural gas refinery in Syria, together with two natural gas fields, Shaer and Jahar. A counteroffensive by the Syrian Army was strong and regime forces managed to retake the Jahar and Shaer fields within days. The ongoing fighting there remains fierce, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The ISIS offensive in Homs and their push towards Palmyra may have much to do with revenge, but there is a bit of strategy in it, as well. “The importance of these locations is less about what they bring to ISIS and more about what they take away from the regime. As an asset, the natural gas is not very useful for ISIS,” Chatham House energy analyst David Butter told NOW. Coalition attacks on oil refineries “caused problems for ISIS,” Butter continued. “First, they didn’t have the fuel for their ground operations. Second, it’s more difficult to market crude oil; they preferred to market diesel fuel because it’s easier to sell. These attacks on the gas fields of the regime could be revenge or they could be a way to pressure and force the regime into some sort of deal whereby they exchange electricity or other products coming from the Homs and Banias refineries [for money].”
The business
Ghassan Yassine, an independent Syrian activist, says that the Islamic State pays its fighters $200-250 a month and needs financing. “For months, ISIS did not antagonize the Syrian regime forces and concentrated on pushing moderate forces out of the liberated regions,” he says. “Assad’s government forces had no interest in meddling and actually maintained a business relationship with ISIS.” Damascus bought cheap oil from Deir Ezzor for months after the jihadists took control over the oil fields.
The two will eventually confront each other in Homs, but at the end
of the day, business is business. “It is true that ISIS does not have
the means to process the natural gas, but they can still benefit from
the gas field, just like they did before with oil fields,” Yassine
said. By Ana Maria Luca/NOW
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