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U.S. Dollars in Syrian black market with Iranian seal

  An exchange agent in Damascus told “Eqtsad” that amounts of American dollars had been trading in the black market with an Iranian seal.

The dollars stamped with phrase “Ya Zahra’a”, one of sacred Shiite's slogans that glorify al-Zahra’a, the daughter of the Prophet Muhammad and wife of Ali bin Abi Talib.

Regarding the source of these dollars, some believe that it was distributed in market through the financial aid provided by Iran to Syria, while the traders returned the source of dollars to the Shia pilgrims who visit Syria continuously.

Months ago, Russia and China have helped support the Syrian economy and a $1bn credit line from Iran has helped back the exchange rate regime of the pound as the two-year rebellion against the Assad takes its toll on the country's industries and investment falls, while sanctions limit export capacity, according to the Arabian Business Magazine.

In the same context, In an attempt to beat Western sanctions and halt the fall in the Syrian pound, the Assad regime – with the help of Iran, Russia, and China – has begun conducting all of its business in rials, roubles, and renminbi. This decision supplements other existing arrangements between Syria and its allies that are keeping the Syrian economy on life-support. These include transfers of $500 million per month in oil and an unlimited credit line with Tehran for food and oil-product imports. Cato, the America institute for Economic studies, reported.

According to Kadri Jamil, Syria’s prime minister for the economy, this life support is necessary because Syria’s devastated economy is the target of an elaborate plot, hatched by the U.S. and Britain, to “sink the Syrian pound.”

So, what about the sinking pound? As the accompanying chart shows, the Syrian pound has lost 66.2% of its value in the last twelve months.

The rout of the Syrian pound has been widely reported in the press.  But, Syria’s inflation problems that have accompanied the collapse of the pound have gone largely unreported.  That’s because, beyond the occasional bits of anecdotal evidence, there has been nothing to report by way of reliable economic data.

To fill that void, I employ standard techniques to estimate Syrian’s current inflation. Currently, Syria is experiencing an annual inflation rate of 200% (see the accompanying chart.

Indeed, Syria is experiencing a monthly inflation rate of 34%. To facilitate the monitoring of the quickly deteriorating situation in Syria, I am creating a resource which will allow readers to view up-to-date data on the Syrian pound and the country’s inflation problems. Soon, black-market exchange-rate data and ¬inflation estimates for countries with troubled currencies like Syria will be made available via the “Troubled Currencies Project” – a joint Cato Institute-Johns Hopkins collaboration under my direction. In consequence, the days of Syria’s plunging pound and raging inflation being covered in a shroud of secrecy are soon coming to an end.

In relevant development, Four million Syrians, or a fifth of the population, are unable to produce or buy enough food for their needs and the situation could deteriorate further next year if the two-year old conflict continues, the United Nations said according to Reuters.

Following a visit to Syria between May and June, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) said in a report that domestic production over the next twelve months is likely to be severely compromised.


Eqtsad, Business online newspaper, affiliated to Zaman Alwasl

Eqtsad
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