At 11 p.m. on
Sept. 5, 2007, 10 F-15 fighter bombers climbed into the sky from the Israeli
military base Ramat David, just south of Haifa. They headed for the
Mediterranean Sea, officially for a training mission. A half hour later, three
of the planes were ordered to return to base while the others changed course,
heading over Turkey toward the Syrian border. There, they eliminated a radar
station with electronic jamming signals and, after 18 more minutes, reached the
city of Deir al-Zor, located on the banks of the Euphrates River. Their target
was a complex of structures known as Kibar, just east of the city. The Israelis
fired away, completely destroying the factory using Maverick missiles and 500
kilogram bombs.
The pilots
returned to base without incident and Operation Orchard was brought to a
successful conclusion. In Jerusalem, then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his
closest advisors were in a self-congratulatory mood, convinced as they were
that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was seeking to build a nuclear weapon and
that Kibar was the almost-completed facility where that construction was to
take place. They believed that their dangerous operation had saved the world
from immense harm.
But they also
wanted to prevent the situation from escalating, which is why they didn't even
inform the US of their plan prior to the bombing run. Olmert only called
Washington once the operation had been completed. Orchard was also to remain
secret in Israel so as to avoid anything that smacked of triumphalism. Nor did
they want it to become known that North Korean nuclear experts had been spotted
in Deir al-Zor helping out with the construction of the reactor. They hoped to
provide Assad an opportunity to play down the incident and to abstain from
revenge attacks.
And that is in
fact what happened. Assad complained about the violation of Syrian airspace and
the bombing of a "warehouse," but the official version also claimed
that the Syrian air force chased away the attackers. The public at the time did
not learn what had really taken place.
Now, secret
information obtained by SPIEGEL indicates that the world is once again being
misled by Assad. Syria's dictator has not given up his dream of an atomic
weapon and has apparently built a new nuclear facility at a secret location. It
is an extremely unsettling piece of news.
Suspicious
Uranium Particles
Back in 2007, it
proved impossible to completely quell rumors about the mysterious building
complex in the desert and its possible military purpose. In contrast to Israel
and Pakistan, Syria is a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of
Nuclear Weapons and is thus committed to using nuclear power only for peaceful
purposes. And the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna demanded access
to the site. In June 2008, Assad finally gave in to the IAEA's pressure and
experts under the leadership of Olli Heinonen, a native of Finland, were
allowed to inspect the destroyed Kibar facility.
It quickly
became apparent that Damascus had done everything it could to destroy all
traces of what had been going on there. But the atomic detectives from the IAEA
were nevertheless able to find suspicious uranium particles -- a discovery that
the Syrian government sought to explain away as a potential act of sabotage.
Though the IAEA noted that its investigation did not turn up definitive proof,
the organization requested access to three other facilities due to ongoing
suspicions. The IAEA suspected that the trio of nuclear sites may be connected
to Kibar, particularly the suspected enrichment facility Marj as-Sultan,
located 15 kilometers north of Damascus. The Syrians refused, angered by what
they called "unfounded defamation."
A clear picture
of the background of the Israeli operation and the details of the commando raid
was only made possible by a precise reconstruction by SPIEGEL in 2009,
assembled following interviews with political leaders, nuclear experts and
secret service experts. Assad, to be sure, denied having nuclear ambitions in a
2009 interview with SPIEGEL, saying: "We want a nuclear-free Middle East,
Israel included." But the IAEA investigation report in May 2011 and a
story in the New Yorker in 2012 made it clear even to skeptics that Syria had
been playing with fire. "The Agency concludes that the destroyed building
was very likely a nuclear reactor," the IAEA report notes with
uncharacteristic clarity.
Afterward, all
activity ceased at the destroyed site, as shown by regularly analyzed satellite
images of the area. But did that mean that the Israeli attack really brought an
end to all Syrian plans for the development of a bomb?
Continued
Pursuit of the Bomb
The factory had
been on the verge of completion and many observers believed at the time that
there could be a secret cache of fuel, at least enough for a year, standing by.
According to IAEA research, Syria possesses up to 50 tons of natural uranium,
enough material for three to five bombs once the enrichment procedure is
completed.
The Institute
for Science and International Security in Washington D.C. likewise has strong
indications for the existence of such stockpiles and expressed its concern in
September 2013. "This large stock of natural uranium metal poses nuclear
proliferation risks," the institute wrote. "It could be obtained by
organizations such as Hezbollah or al-Qaida or undeclared nuclear programs of
states such as Iran."
According to
findings of Western intelligence agencies, however, the situation is much more
explosive than previously assumed. Based on documents that SPIEGEL has in its
possession, the agencies are convinced that Assad is continuing in his efforts
to build the bomb.
Analysts say
that the Syrian atomic weapon program has continued in a secret, underground
location. According to information they have obtained, approximately 8,000 fuel
rods are stored there. Furthermore, a new reactor or an enrichment facility has
very likely been built at the site -- a development of incalculable
geopolitical consequences.
Some of the
uranium was apparently hidden for an extended period at Marj as-Sultan near
Damascus, a site that the IAEA likewise views with suspicion. Satellite images
from December 2012 and February 2013 show suspicious activity at Marj
as-Sultan. The facility, located not far from a Syrian army base, had become
the focal point of heavy fighting with rebels. Government troops had to quickly
move everything of value. They did so, as intelligence officials have been able
to reconstruct, with the help of Hezbollah, the radical Shiite "Party of
God" based in Lebanon. The well-armed militia, which is largely financed
by Iran, is fighting alongside Assad's troops.
Intercepted
Conversations
Intelligence
agency findings indicate that the material was moved to a well-hidden
underground location just west of the city of Qusayr, not even two kilometers
from the border with Lebanon. They managed the move just in time. Marj
as-Sultan ultimately did fall to the rebels, but has since been retaken by
government troops.
Since then,
experts have been keeping a close eye on the site outside of Qusayr, one which
they had largely ignored before, believing it to be a conventional Hezbollah
weapons depot. Analysts compared earlier satellite images and carefully noted
even the slightest of changes. Soon, it became clear to them that they had
happened upon an extremely disconcerting discovery.
According to
intelligence agency analysis, construction of the facility began back in 2009.
The work, their findings suggest, was disguised from the very beginning, with
excavated sand being disposed of at various sites, apparently to make it more
difficult for observers from above to tell how deeply they were digging.
Furthermore, the entrances to the facility were guarded by the military, which
turned out to be a necessary precaution. In the spring of 2013, the region
around Qusayr saw heavy fighting. But the area surrounding the project in the
mines was held, despite heavy losses suffered by elite Hezbollah units
stationed there.
The most recent
satellite images show six structures: a guard house and five sheds, three of
which conceal entrances to the facility below. The site also has special access
to the power grid, connected to the nearby city of Blosah. A particularly
suspicious detail is the deep well which connects the facility with Zaita Lake,
four kilometers away. Such a connection is unnecessary for a conventional
weapons cache, but it is essential for a nuclear facility.
But the clearest
proof that it is a nuclear facility comes from radio traffic recently
intercepted by a network of spies. A voice identified as belonging to a
high-ranking Hezbollah functionary can be heard referring to the "atomic
factory" and mentions Qusayr. The Hezbollah man is clearly familiar with
the site. And he frequently provides telephone updates to a particularly
important man: Ibrahim Othman, the head of the Syrian Atomic Energy Commission.
The Hezbollah
functionary mostly uses a codename for the facility: "Zamzam," a word
that almost all Muslims know. According to tradition, Zamzam is the well God
created in the desert for Abraham's wife and their son Ishmael. The well can be
found in Mecca and is one of the sites visited by pilgrims making the Hajj.
Those who don't revere Zamzam are not considered to be true Muslims.
North Korean
Expert in Syria?
Work performed
at the site by members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard is also mentioned in the
intercepted conversations. The Revolutionary Guard is a paramilitary
organization under the direct control of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It
controls a large part of the Iranian economy and also plays a significant role
in Iran's own nuclear activities. Not all of its missions abroad are cleared
with the government of moderate President Hassan Rohani. The Revolutionary
Guard is a state within a state.
Experts are also
convinced that North Korea is involved in Zamzam as well. Already during the
construction of the Kibar facility, Ibrahim Othman worked closely together with
Chou Ji Bu, an engineer who built the nuclear reactor Yongbyon in North Korea.
Chou was long
thought to have disappeared. Some thought that he had fallen victim to a purge
back home. Now, though, Western intelligence experts believe that he went
underground in Damascus. According to the theory, Othman never lost contact
with his shady acquaintance. And experts believe that the new nuclear facility
could never have been built without North Korean know-how. The workmanship
exhibited by the fuel rods likewise hints at North Korean involvement.
What approach
will now be taken to Zamzam? How will the West, Assad and Syria's neighbors
react to the revelations?
The discovery of
the presumed nuclear facility will not likely be welcomed by any of the
political actors. It is an embarrassment for everybody. For Syria and North
Korea, both of which have periodically sought to shed their images as
international pariahs. For Hezbollah, which hopes to emerge as Lebanon's
strongest political power.
A New Assessment
But the new
development also comes at an uncomfortable time for the US government. Despite
all official denials, Washington is currently operating in the region
more-or-less in concert with Assad in the fight against the Islamist terrorist
militia Islamic State. Furthermore, following the well-monitored and largely
efficient destruction of Syrian chemical weapons, the US, Britain and France
all believed that Assad's ability to wage unconventional warfare had been
eliminated. The possible development of a Syrian atomic weapon, should it be
confirmed, would necessarily lead to a new assessment of the situation.
The discovery
presents a particularly difficult dilemma to Israel. The country has, to be
sure, continued to bomb Hezbollah supply lines, but it apparently knew nothing
of a possible new nuclear facility. Israeli leaders would be faced with the
impossible decision between ignoring Zamzam or undertaking an extremely risky
attack against a facility built deep underground. In contrast to 2007, bunker
buster bombs would be required, with unforeseeable consequences for the
environment. It would be an irresponsible decision, but one which Israeli
hardliners could ultimately make.
The
international monitors in Vienna also don't look good, with IAEA boss Yukiya
Amano having been deceived by Assad. In September 2014, the Japanese national
urged "Syria to cooperate fully with the agency in connection with all
unresolved issues." He hasn't yet received a reply. A sanction of last
resort would be that of expelling Syria from the IAEA, an unlikely step given
that Moscow continues to protect Assad, in the IAEA as in the United Nations.
Islamic State
recently invited IAEA inspectors to investigate in areas under their control.
The terror organization conquered the area around Deir al-Zor several months
ago and offered the IAEA the opportunity to have another look around the Kibar
facility. But the Vienna-based organization declined, not wanting to provide
Islamic State with any kind of legitimacy.
Plus, Deir al-Zor is no longer the focal point. The international experts in Vienna now find themselves confronted with new challenges across the country on the border with Lebanon.
Comments About This Article
Please fill the fields below.