Houthis: Forging on regardless

By Bushra al-Maqrari

(al-Araby al-Jadeed)- Yemeni optimism was short-lived after President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi escaped house arrest in Sanaa and travelled to Aden. Hadi's actions shook up the political scene stagnant since the Houthi takeover in September. The positive atmosphere, however, has been destroyed by new political nightmares appearing on the horizon.

These nightmares will pave the way for a new political and geographical map of Yemen. This map will be the result of the stupidity of gamblers who are putting the country at risk, not of the millions of sacrifices made by Yemenis in their different revolutions over the past few decades.

Contrary to the hopes of Yemenis for some respite from the political storms ruining their lives, the Houthi position is caused by the group's fundamentalist belief in "martyrdom and selection", even if that means burning the whole country and themselves in the process.

During the siege of Hadi's house, the Houthi mmovement refused all political efforts to save the country from its current crisis. However, since his escape, the group's political thuggery has become more prominent. It has refused to read the new political realities and deal with them logically to prevent futile wars and conflicts.

Therefore, the group has continued its policy of dividing the country and leading it towards economic failure. The Houthis are pushing Yemen on this course by escalating the situation on the ground in preparation for a possible confrontation with Hadi, and by exacerbating political divisions that are driving a growing political, geographical and sectarian wedge between the de facto authority they have imposed in Sanaa and Hadi's shaken authority in Aden.

Having sabotaged the political process, the Houthis have tried to increase their influence over military and security institutions over the past few days. It is a pattern that was seen during the time of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh's Congress party and the Islamist al-Islah party.

The Houthi movement has also tried to restructure these institutions so that they serve the group's interests. They have replaced military and security leaders with people loyal to the group, and included their armed popular committees in the armed and security forces.

Furthermore, Houthi militias in coordination with former president Saleh, have solidified their partial control of the strategic city of al-Bayda by controlling its military bases as part of a plan to control the north of the country and use it as a launch pad to the south.

The group also took control of the coastal defence brigade in the city of al-Hadida after intense fighting caused numerous causalities and led to the seizure of the headquarters of the Special Forces in al-Subaha military base. This falls under the jurisdiction of the republican guards and its former commander Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, eldest son of the former president.

Therefore, pro-Saleh media nothwithstanding, it looks likely that the Houthis will continue to use military force in the coming period and in cooperation with Saleh.

The media denials can only be understood as an attempt to deflect pressure after international sanctions and threats to freeze Saleh's recently revealed wealth. In my opinion, the complexities of the current political scene do not differ from those of the military scene, which favours an alliance between the Houthis and Saleh. It is highly likely the next play made by political forces may be a military one.

On the other side of the disjointed political spectrum, president Hadi is trying to form a parallel political and military bloc that will solidify his political legitimacy, on the one hand, and increase the Houthis' political isolation on the other, especially as the regional and international context has shifted in his favour.

However, Hadi does not seem to have a cohesive political front. The honeymoon with the southern Hirak secessionist movement could end at any time. This may be caused by a political escalation on the ground, or because of the interference of regional powers using the Hirak to achieve their own interests.

Furthermore, Hadi's military backing seems to be limited to popular committees in the city of Aden. He does not seem to have learned from his past political errors. His recent statements affirm he continues to insist on imposing federalism and the proposed draft constitution on the country. This has happened despite the reservations of many political forces.

Yemen therefore is in a difficult position, crushed between the rock of Hadi and the international community, and the hard place of the Houthis, both of which deny the people the right to determine their country’s future.

Between the threats of alienation, counter alienation, the use of force, legitimacy and foreign intervention, we are approaching a new chapter in the confrontation between a fundamentalist group and a president that wants to regain his stature.

It seems the battle will be carried out over military and security institutions. Controlling them is the decisive factor in this battle. However in the end, the only losers will be the Yemeni people who are already exhausted by this expensive political show.