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Aleppo's siege break changed Syria talks agenda

Writing by Abdullah al-Ghadawi

(Zaman al-Wasl)- Last Friday, the Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Sergey Lavrov discussed possibility of implementing Security Council resolution 2254 in relation to Syria and putting a plan to counter “extremist” groups.

Russian American committees started to put a new plan to ceasefire when the UN envoy for Syrian crisis Steffan De Mistura announced holding fourth round of talks between Syrian regime and opposition.

According to information obtained by Zaman al-Wasl, the Russians and Americans pushed De Mistura with European support to draft a new “framework plan” related to the crisis and comes into the resolution 2254. The new draft will give negotiations a new form following three rounds of failure and the plan will be supported in Security Council with a resolution to implement the procedures.

The regime was moving forward with a political military plan centered on extending control of Aleppo and waiting for the American Russian pushing to hold a negotiation round in which the regime will be the victorious party on the negotiation’s table spoiling itself politically on the International Committee and imposes its will as the most powerful on the ground.

Only few days passed on this scenario and then things turned on the ground in Aleppo, the besieged is now besieged itself. The Syrian resistance swallowed hug areas were controlled by regime and advanced militarily by capturing artillery faculty and connecting the western neighborhoods with the eastern ones in Aleppo. The resistance broke the siege and continued to advance.

In the light of the ecstasy of victory for the Syrian resistance and the weaknesses of the regime and Iranian militia in Aleppo and the noticeable absence of the Russian warplanes in Aleppo, Jaish al-Fatih released a statement confirming the resistance will continue to advance to regime strongholds until they raise the flag on Aleppo citadel. Meanwhile, there is controversial silence by international community as if the requested is to kneel Assad down and humiliate him as well as minimize his military power.

The advance of Syrian resistance in Aleppo and fear of collapse of military balance on ground made western countries think seriously of a ceasefire; however, this ceasefire will not include the terrorist organizations according to the Russian American classification.

The awaited scenario in the fierce battle that De Mistura will present his new plan to hold negotiation round soon as he will obtain the Russian American and European agreement to do that. Later on, he will rally support in Security Council to put the final touches whereas the Russian and American committees will finish the arrangement of cessation of hostilities between the regime and opposition.

The Iranian news agency said on Sunday that nearly 2000 fighters from al-Nujabaa Movement trained very well are heading to Aleppo for a counter battle to recapture what regime and Iran lost there. It is also a clear signal from Iran that the only option in Syria is that fighting continues since the battle in Aleppo was an Iranian Assadist choice and Moscow was not in favor of it since the beginning. The Iranian escalation might be an obstacle for international efforts seeking to keep in place the fait accompli.

The other thing that will blow any international initiative to ceasefire is what will result from the Russian American committee especially if they considered Jaish al-Fatih and Fateh al-Sham terrorist organization. This will push Iran, the regime and Russia to be on one side forced to counter these forces which were key forces in liberation of Aleppo battle.

Hence, it is not easy for the international plan to ceasefire to succeed if the Russian way of dealing with factions on the ground remains the same. Otherwise, the International Community will be the one placing the Syrian resistance in a position of the attacker and in front of death alone. If that happened and ceasefire took place, we are in front of a wounded lion forced to go to Geneva but this time it won’t be in the style of “blunt” negotiator Bashar al-Jaafari. This time Geneva will be different!

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