Analysis: Nusra Front and the New Phase

(By Ahmed Abazid; Translation by Dani Murad)

(Zaman Alwasl) - On the second day of Eid al-Fitr, July 30/2014, Al Nusra Front, through al-Baseera Foundation for media production, released a video of Eid’s sermon and prayer by Dr. Sami al- Uraydi (the sharia official of Al Nusrah) to resolve the controversy and set the record straight regarding the arrangements of leadership positions in its new phase after the loss of Deir al-Zour.

Al-raydi declared the group aims, including the establishment of an Islamic emirate (or state), starting a campaign “to deter corruptors”, and confronting the battalions accused of abuses in the border villages with Turkey, in Aleppo and Idlib’s countryside, and arresting more FSA leaders and fighters in Daraa.

Sheikh Sami al-Uraydi, or aka Abu Mahmud al-Shami is considered the substitute of (Abu Maria Al-Qahtani) or “Mysara Jubouri", who was born in a town south of Mosul, and known for his charismatic personality and strong relations with the local community, and had a major role in building Al Nusra Front in Syria in general and in the eastern region in particular.

Al-Qahtani, who has accompanied al-Joulani in his mission across the country to establish the Front (as told by Al-Qahtani in a sentimental language to defend Joulani: (Would you leave our princes), has been since the establishment of the group, the second man hierarchically, and the first man in terms of media presence in the public virtual world.

However, the appointment of al-Uraydi, who is a Jordanian cleric and holds a PHD degree in Islamic (Hadith) is not a mere procedural change, but came within the context of alternative rescue plan at the level of speech, structure and future goals of Al Nusra Front .

And in a study published by the author entitled "The Syrian scene after Deir ez-Zor: the challenge to exist between ISIS, Al Nusra and the revolution," the study tackled the gradual disintegration of Al-Nusra, since the declaration of the state of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in April 9, 2013, and how some fighters in the Front rejected to yield to its leadership, flocking in large numbers to the Islamic State which controlled the Front’s headquarters and warehouses of weapons.

All these factors contributed to the weakening of the Front’s capabilities and shrank its expansion; however, the group faced all these challenges by concluding more alliances with other Islamic factions and getting close to local communities, until it regained Its overwhelming field presence within months, due to the growing numbers of people who joined its rows, considering it a better Salafi and jihadi option than "Daesh", in addition to the Front’s significant importance in Deir al-Zour as well as its financial resources there, and the military victories it achieved in Daraa and Aleppo, in conjunction with the various factions.

But with the beginning of 2014 and the start of the global war against (ISIS), Al Nusra preferred not to interfere in the war and maintained the role of the mediator, securing the headquarters of state in more than one town in the countryside of Idlib and Aleppo, and it hasn’t entered the battle against them except in Raqqa , but soon retreated with Ahrar Al Saham and the rest of the factions , leaving the state to settle since February in Raqqa, Al Bab, Manbej and Jarablos.

Since February 2014, the conflict has spread to Deir al-Zour, passing through many stages, in which Al Nusra was the one to carry the main burden of fighting ISIS in the eastern region, led by its sharia official (Abu Maria Al-Qahtani) who was previously a solider with the "Islamic State of Iraq", and joined Al Nusra in an attempt to correct the mistakes and crimes of the State of Iraq (as he called and apologized for to “ Muslims” in his account), and he formed a strong and decisive opinion against the organization among Al Nusra’s rows, in the town of Al Shaheel, which is the Front’s most important point in the eastern region, supported by the presence of a lot of the region’s sons who are jihadists returning from Iraq. 

And during the confrontations with the state, the town of Al Shaheel sacrificed more than 200 martyrs, until it was forced to sign a peace agreement with the organization on July 3rd, which represents the real dominance of (ISIS) over the countryside of Deir ez-Zor, coinciding with the withdrawal of Al Nusra’s convoy toward Daraa, including the Sharia official of the Font (Abu Maria Al-Qahtani).

During the long battles that took months with the state, which intensified and accelerated during the months of May and June, a growing accusations have been raised between Al Nusra fighters in Deir ez-Zor toward their leadership and its branches in north of Syria , due to their inability to support them or open fronts parallel to ISIS, despite the centralization of the eastern region to Al Nusra, not only in terms of financial funding to all its branches but also to the intensity of its military commands there, and for being the first area in which the Front has managed to root socially.

In addition to the previously mentioned, Al Qahtani has adopted a new modernized direction and presented a speech acceptable to other Islamic factions and communities, and he still until today on his (account on Twitter) directs the abandonment accusations for leaving the eastern region alone, despite all its sacrifices.

The abandonment accusations were not only directed toward Al Nusra branches for not assisting the eastern region, but also manifested in different views toward "Daesh" among the front’s Fighters, because some of them considered fighting the state as a major priority in the Eastern region, while in the coast, FSA and Al Nusra secured a safe passage to ISIS militants to Raqqa, to be attacked later at the end of March in Markadah, in which they lost more than 70 FSA and Nusra of Deir al-Zour’s sons there.

Thus, Al Nusra in Daraa represented the most coherent and solid experiences among the group’s other branches, especially after the collapse of its branch in north of Syria, and the withdrawal of its remaining leaders to Daraa, including (Abu Maria Al-Qahtani) last July, which made Daraa the Front’s most important and largest strongholds in Syria, in its practical experience in establishing the Islamic emirate, even before al-Joulnai's postpone of this project.

In conclusion, After the loss of Deir al-Zour and disintegration that has developed in Al Nusra, and the attempts of some Islamic local factions to seek Independence away from the Front, the group chose to change its alliances towards a more extreme Salafi jihadi approach, especially toward the emigrants, and to introduce a project that will regain the importance of the leadership’s centralization, and presents itself as a sharia authority and judicial and security resource, to protect its fighters from joining Daesh on one hand, and to acquire others who began slipping into Daesh to find another "legitimate" alternative.

And the group’s Expansion on the border line with Turkey has no doubt its economic and strategic goals, but this spread which received a huge welcome from activists and people who were exposed to violations by these battalions, was faced with a lot of objection by local factions, including the Islamic Front, which issued on July 25, a firm statement that states the invalidity of any caliphate or Emirate "not chosen by the people of Sham or approved by the people in charge" and that fighting corruption and prosecuting battalions must be done through legitimate bodies and joint forces, and not by individual factions that impose their guardianship, which what happened in the north countryside of Aleppo, with the intervention of the Islamic Front and Jaish al-Mujahideen with Al Nusra after it separately prosecuted " Qabdet Al Shemal Battalions ".

All of this will hinder Al Nusra from fulfilling its project to the fullest or it will force it to lower its goals and expectations, which consequently going to affect its first aim in preventing its fighters from joining Daesh .

And as was previously stated, Daraa was the first city in which Al Nusra exercised its rule individually, despite the growing tension among factions of the region, who see the Front as a threat as a result of the arrest campaigns carried out by the group against factions who committed violations, as to what happened to militants from Liwa “Ziab al Ghab” in Idlib.

Therefore, the appointment of Sami al- Uraydi comes within the context of a rescue plan adopted by Al Nusra toward shifting its speech to a more solid ideological approach, confirming its centralized leadership and uniting its strategy at the country level by trying to win immigrants and gain popularity among people directly, without the mediation of local factions or legitimate bodies.

However, in this regard, the group faces a complicated dilemma, on one hand it can’t ally with local factions who have established their political and military projects Independently, and on the other hand it can’t face ISIS which is expanding its influence among Al Nusra rows, and finally its dependence on alliances with immigrants has lessened after the announcement of “Ansar al-Deen Front” in July 29, 2014.

Therefore, Al Nusra might face major risks represented by clashes with the local factions, or inability to impose its authority, or even the fear to disintegrate, in addition to the growing feelings of abandonment as a result of losing of Deir al-Zour and the withdrawal of its main officials to Daraa.

These resentment feelings were clearly expressed in Qahatni’s speech via a voice message on the 3rd of August, in which he criticized Al Nusra and Qaeda for their failure to take a firm stance against "Khawarij" and not being able to purify their internal rows from people who adopt Daesh’s methodology and letting down “the revolution of the oppressed”.

Qahtani has addressed al-Qaeda leader in farewell messages leaving for the next few days to reveal, if it’s just a farewell for Al Nusra or for more than that.