By Abdullah Al Ghadawi; Translation by Dani Murad
(Zaman Al Wasl)- In a pre-emptive move to the anticipated international strikes on its headquarters in Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State “IS” and according to well-informed sources has put a phase plan that would take a few days to be completed.
According to the sources, the plan focuses on protecting the organization’s headquarters in Iraq more than Syria, since they are the oldest and the most important, in addition to being the center of the Islamic caliphate.
And with expectations that the war would last for a year, the organization planed accordingly and mobilized all its capacities on that basis, in order to survive for at least a year, putting into consideration that the organization will be disintegrated and weakened due to the continuation of losses, similar to what happened in Afghanistan, when despair took over the forces of “ISAF” amid the growing capabilities of the Taliban.
And in order to protect the financial sources that pump money into the organization, the “State” plan includes securing all the oil fields in Deir al-Zour, in addition to deploying special units to protect them, due to the importance of these wells for being the financial safety valve of the organization, and fearing the coalition forces would be able to neutralize the oil from the funding sources, therefore, nowadays the Islamic State is taking full advantage of the Syrian oils wells.
moreover, and within the framework of assigning the roles, IS is working on using Syria as the main supply line for the organization, and this is what many interpreted when the State evacuated many of its headquarters in Syria, to only be sufficient with some mobile checkpoints, and although the organization transferred many of its weapons to Iraq, it kept its most important military arsenal that can be depend upon in the face of international strikes, in Raqqa and Al-Bukamal.
This time, and according to the State’s previous experiences, the organization will be provided with supply through the Euphrates river routes, which are the safest exposed passages in Syria, therefore, a group of well-trained and experienced militants have been prepared to conduct the smuggling operations in the river, and according to the sources, it’s likely that the dense forests of Euphrates river, where IS’s warehouses of weapons will be hidden, especially in summer, when the river’s water declines.
The sources also confirm that the jihadist group is living in anticipation and anxiety, monitoring severely the areas under its control, because they fear the intelligence penetrations, or the so called “agents”.
On the other hand, there are strong expectations that the percentages of Syrian defections from IS will increase in case the American strike has taken place, whether in Syria or Iraq, and for several reasons, including:
- The absence of an ideological motive among Syrian fighters who belong to “IS” since most of them have joined the organization for personal reasons, mostly financial ones, while others joined after the State’s sweeping victories, believing it can protect them later, which is called “the infatuation of the defeated with the victorious”.
- The State has lost people’s support in most of the areas it controls in Deir al-Zour, due to the atrocities it committed, especially after the massacres and displacement of Alshaitat, which raised the horror in the eastern region.
- The fact that this organization is going through a long-term war, is one of the main reasons why a lot of Syrian fighters are having a second thought.
However, all the expectations and IS’s movements indicate that the coming war between the Islamic State and the international coalition is taking place in Iraq and not Syria, duo to the following reasons:
1- The State has emerged in Iraq, therefore it’s reasonable that IS will resort to the country for security and popular considerations.
2- Most of the organization’s leaders reside in Iraq, especially people surrounding the prince of the organization, "Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi," in addition to that fact that the Iraqi Mini Council is only limited to Iraqis and has no other nationalities.
3- IS’s main battle is with the Shiite ( Rafedi) because the sectarian rule of Nouri al-Malki, has increased the extremism of IS, and forced Sunni Iraqis to synthesize with the State for a long time, just to avoid Maliki’s oppression.
4- Due to its atrocities against the Syrians, IS is not safe is Syria, and revenge stalks its militants everywhere, starting from the free army to Al Nusra in Aleppo and al-Hasaka, unlike the obvious enemy in Iraq, represented by the Iraqi army , the Peshmerga and some Shiite militias.
As a result of these reasons, the State’s dominance and influence on Syria is expected to shrink with the start of the international strike, but achieving that requires more coordination and simultaneous movement from Syrian fighters on the ground, in addition to the need for international support , and at this critical moment, the armed opposition factions should present themselves as one effective tool to change the balance of forces on the ground, and stop complaining about the lack of arms and ammunition on TV channels, because it’s no secret that Ahrar Al Sham, Syria’s Revolutionaries Front, and Jabhet Al Nusra have stacked up a lot of weapons, waiting for the decisive moment to topple the regime, and perhaps the formation of an international coalition of 40 countries to hit the "state" is a real opportunity to get rid of IS , which has almost overshadowed the Syrian revolution and it’s a chance to put the revolution on its right track.
However, in this context, we wonder where are the Free Army, and the other fighting factions, starting with the newest formation of “Etasimo” which was established early last month, a merge of the most powerful 18 factions in north of Syria including “Hazem” movement, which said that it has 7 thousand fighters!
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